The short-term trend is clearly up in USDCAD but price the rally is showing signs of weakness with a bearish divergence near the 150dma; this is also a key resistance from Feb/Apr this year and a big 50% retrace zone. (p1) Conversely, in the s/t the rally looks impulsive and the consolidation from Friday is a bullish triangle; this pause could relieve the momentum divergence ahead of a 5th wave higher to complete 5 waves up from the .9633. The bottom line is that channel and l/t resistance still stand in the way of a break higher but a move through 1.0050 takes a step toward solidifying a bullish base dating back to August. (p2) Levels: Support – .9997, .9985, .9947 Resistance – 1.0041, 1.0052, 1.0062.
NOMURA