– China unveiled its leadership line-up
– Japan opposition leader called for unlimited BoJ easing
– We expect an upside surprise in today’s euro area GDP
What to watch for today
EUR: Growth deficit. GDP data for the euro area are released today, along with GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Our economists see some scope for an upside surprise in these numbers relative to consensus expectations, looking for a -0.1% contraction. Still, numbers in line with our +0.1% estimate would hardly be reassuring, particularly given the likelihood that activity is again contracting in the fourth quarter. We expect growth concerns to weigh on the EUR in the weeks ahead, and have recommended short EURUSD spot and derivatives positions in our model portfolios.
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