– Risk appetite opens the week soft with the USD rallying
– Australia’s job ads contract again
– HSBC China non-manufacturing PMI rose in September
– Eurogroup meeting today unlikely to yield a Spanish bailout
What to watch for today
EUR: Meeting time. Euro zone finance ministers will be meeting today and we believe Spain, Greece, Portugal and the ESM will be the main topics on the agenda. However, our economists think the likelihood of Spain making a formal request for aid at today’s meeting is small, especially with yields at levels that would allow Spain to finance in the market. It also seems premature to look for definitive agreement on further relief for Greece. We believe the group is likely to release the next tranche of aid for Portugal, but in the absence of definitive progress towards a Spanish aid request, we think sovereign markets and the EUR remain vulnerable. On the data front, we expect a -0.8%mom print on German industrial production, after an increase of 1.3%mom in July, a bit worse than consensus set at -0.6%mom.
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