FX Market Analysis

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.2902, Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2917 after correcting off a session high of $1.2968 as market reacted to comments from Spain’s Rajoy that a request for aid was not imminent. The rate touched an early high of $1.2921 into Asia before turning lower, the move down influenced by heavy sales of Aussie as this currency reacted to the release of weak domestic data and softer than forecast non-mfg China PMI. US name profit take sales of euro-Aussie added to the weight as euro-dollar was pressed to an overnight low of $1.2893, with traders reported to have positioned to take out stops sub $1.2880. Rate had recovered above $1.2900 into early Europe only to come under another round of sell pressure, this time taking the rate to $1.2878 despite reports of Asian reserve manager buys below $1.2890. Semi -official demand off the lows (similar area to Tuesday) prompted a recovery, with US custodian buys taking it above $1.2900. Rate traded to $1.2930, despite release of soft Eurozone PMI data, trading on to $1.2937 despite reported semi-official supply.

GBP: Opened early Europe at $1.6150 and stg0.7988, GBP closed in NY at $1.6132 after pulling back from a session recovery high of $1.6188 as risk appetite was bruised by Spain PM Rajoy comments that Spain asking for aid was not imminent. Cable touched an early high of $1.6134 into Asian trade before turning lower, taking direction from a negative react in Aussie to release of weak domestic data and softer than forecast China non-mfg numbers. The risk related sales pressed rate to $1.6121 before rate met decent demand into the dip, the buying taking the rate to an overnight high of $1.6140 before it settled back between $1.6125/30 through Asian afternoon trade and into Europe. Euro-sterling consolidated Tuesday’s rally to stg0.8018, with trade contained within a stg0.79965-0.8007 as it pivoted stg0.8000. UK services PMI due at 0828GMT will provide the morning’s domestic interest, with Eurozone services and EMU retail sales also of interest. US ADP and non-mfg ISM ahead of Friday jobs report will also be of interest. Cable bids $1.6110/00 ahead of $1.6085/80. Resistance $1.6170/75 ahead of $1.6190/00.

JPY: Opened in early Europe at Y78.23 and Y100.91, Dollar-yen opened on a bid tone in Asia and lifted to Y78.25 as the pair consolidated NY session gains. The rate extended to Y78.30 on model account demand, before meeting Japanese bank supply as traders reported of decent two-way flow ahead of the fix. Sharp cross sales added weight and the dollar slipped to Y78.11, before demand in the dip led the recovery and a slow grind to Y78.25. Euro-yen tracked early dollar moves to print Y101.11, before sharp supply from Japanese lifers putting in new hedges pressed. The cross fell to Y100.78, later bouncing to settle in a tight range around Y100.90. Dollar-yen traded a tight Y78.18-26  European range with very little action to move the pair as markets seen in consolidation mode. Euro-yen opened heavy in Europe and slipped to Y100.72 on soft Spanish PMI data, before dip demand pared early losses. The cross extended gains to Y101.12 on reported semi-official demand in euro-dollar, later easing on profit take sales. The risk-on sentiment continues and the pair last deals Y101.15 ahead of NY.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team