FX Market Analysis

GBP: Opened early Europe at $1.5885, stg0.7936, GBP opened in Asia at $1.5885 and ground lower before dip demand recovered and settled in a tight range. Euro-dollar’s stop hunt lifted cable to $1.5899 and tested yesterday’s spike high, the rate stalled before a fresh wave of demand attempted a clean break of $1.5900. Once again the move was capped at $1.5899 and later eased to $1.5885. Euro-sterling tracked sharp euro-dollar demand in Asia and lifted to stg0.7942 where the rate consolidated ahead of Europe. Cable opened on a bid tone in early Europe and lifted through $1.5900. The rate triggered stops before meeting technical resistance and stalling at $1.5908. Release of weaker than expected UK PMI construction data pared gains, funds supply added weight and the pair eased to $1.5890. Support seen at $1.5877 from the Asian low, a break opens bids at $1.5855/50 ($1.5852/50 – 5 dma, 3 Sep low). Euro-sterling slipped to stg0.7927 on release of the UK data where support from the 5 dma cushioned, later lifting to stg0.7933.

EUR: Opened early Europe at $1.2609, Euro-dollar opened in Asia around $1.2580 and lifted on support from local names in early trade, rate extended gains on reserve manager demand and triggered stops through $1.2610. Swiss name supply briefly capped but couldn’t prevent further stops flushed through $1.2625, before profit take sales eased and the rate consolidated above $1.2600. Early demand on the European open lifted to $1.2627 and flirt with the Asian high, the rate later stalled and pared gains to settle in a tight range. Euro-dollar headed lower in tandem with cable following weaker than expected UK PMI construction data and made a show under $1.2600, dip demand aided but recovery attempts seen shallow ahead of NY. Support seen on the downside at $1.2585/80 ($1.2581 – Asian low), through here opens techs at $1.2573 (100 dma), ahead of $1.2564/60 (5 dma, 3 Sep low). The Asia high seen capping moves on the topside at $1.2528, a break to $1.2538 (Spike high post Bernanke 31/8).

JPY: Opened in early Europe at Y78.40 and Y98.82, Dollar-yen opened in Asia at Y78.30 and was led higher through the Tokyo fix on strong cross demand to Y78.43, later easing to settle around Y78.35. Euro-yen opened in Asia at Y98.60 and early demand from a Japanese trust name lifted through the fix, extending gains in tandem with euro-dollar to highs of Y98.99, before meeting resistance and easing to Y98.85. Dollar yen traded a narrow Y78.36-47 range in Europe with very little action to move the pair. Strong offers reported at Y78.50, more behind at Y78.60 with stops set. Support seen at Y78.25 from the Asian low, a break opens semi-official demand at Y78.10/00. The cross largely tracked euro-dollar moves and extended gains in early trade, flushing stops through Y99.00 on the move. Profit take sales eased and the pair settled in a tight range closing the morning around Y98.85. Support seen at Y98.58 from the 5 dma, ahead of bids at Y98.55/50 (Y98.52 – Asian low). Stops noted on the topside through Y99.20/30, a break opens strong offers/stops at Y99.45/50.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team