G10
EUR – Still playing the 1.2450/1.2600 range – some good rm and model buying yest took us back above 1.25 while some decent lev selling capped us at 1.2560-80 area – support is still 1.2530 then 1.2450 – topside resistance is 1.2590 (fibo) then 1.2600 (100 day m.a) – currently short against the recent range highs look to rebuy at 1.2530 then 1.2490.
GBP – Good buying of EUR/GBP yesterday and a slow painful squeeze in EUR/USD were the main themes. Chatter of month end related demand for the cross is doing the rounds once more. Cable couldn’t get out of the shadow of EUR/USD, despite the interest in EUR/GBP and quality selling of cable early on. So, today, nothing much has changed. I still run core short cable and look to sell EUR/GBP on a relative value/range play should we get towards 0.7970. My order book is finally picking up supply in cable as we head towards 1.5900 but I also like short EUR/USD this side of 1.2630. Levels in cable, RES: 1.5836, 1.5848, 1.5870 and 1.5910. SUP: 1.5768, 1.5755, 1.5744 and then 1.5708. EUR/GBP RES: 0.7955, 0.7970, 0.8000. SUP: 0.7935, 0.7910 and 0.7885.
JPY – Still in the 78.30 (fibo support) /78.80 (range break lvl) range – Japanese exporters continue to provide thick offers topside 78.65-80 while investors sit on the bid 35-45 below – Dont expect much of a change in the range at least until we get some clarity on friday from Bernanke.
AUD (1.0377) – not a great deal to report, flow has been thin with the market again reluctant to chase one way or the other. EURAUD held the 1.2130 level perfectly – this should again serve as the first level of resistance, and I will continue to run short ahead of such for now. AUDNZD topical yesterday, some decent macro supply of NZD saw the cross squeeze but this 1.2890/00 level should be sticky for now (50/200 dma’s). Some decent stops building topside in AUD, 1.0435/55 seems to be the broader level of note. Offers ahead of here though, especially as we hit resistance round the Monday highs above 1.0400. Downside quite thin, sporadic bids down to the 200dma at 1.0310 but stops lurking below. Good luck!!
CAD – USDCAD still struggling to rally at the moment, flushed out some RM stops below 0.9870/60 yesterday on the way down to another 0.9840 low which held last week as well. Some corp demand popped up around here and there should be good support around yearly lows at 0.9800. With main risk events later in the week will look to play 0.9830/0.9930 for today and can play either side of here, bias to still sell rallies. Good luck.
Resistance 0.9940 0.9970 1.0000
Support 0.9840 0.9800 0.9750
Scandies – Another day another10 big figure move in EURSEK, 8.21 the low early morning yesterday before worse than expected trade balance data and some insatiable French demand for EURUSD all helped drive EURSEK back above 8.31. Will be stops above 8.35 which could see us trade 8.40 fairly sharpish if we breach it, leading into month end I think this demand could continue so wary of selling a rally here despite this working several times previously. NOKSEK should lead the way today with the Norges bank at 13:00, still got bids at 1.1285/75 and stops above 1.14, I don’t think the Norges will cut rates but given the fact the kroner is stronger than previous rate cut in March there could be a dovish undertone, 7.38/40 first level of resistance where there should be stops above. Not positioned in NOK at the moment and a few more shops recommending selling of NOK leading into month end. 7.25/26 should be good support in EURNOK and 5.80 good support in USDNOK, dips may be shallow leading into the end of the week. Good luck.
EURSEK support: 8.26 8.20 8.1750 resistance: 8.35 8.38 8.40
EURNOK support: 7.30 7.25 7.20 resistance: 7.40 7.46 7.50
PRECIOUS METALS
All eyes set firmly on Friday and Jackson Hole so it seems. Gold saw a mixture of profit taking and cheap upside punts from the Hedge Fund community yesterday, whilst Asian profit taking continues. Expect uptrend to remain in place until Friday when next move should become clearer. For now 1660-1682 range should suffice with Private Banking and Physical players trading the range intraday Silvers upmove the past few weeks has been impressive and it remains strong. A move above 31.50 could see decent upside momentum appear, although a dip around first notice day is often seen as a buying opportunity so look for that over the next 48 hours. Maybe back towards 29.95/30.00. Platinum has come off around 40 usd from the highs and those who missed the run will look at 1510 and 1490 as places to look to join in. 1550 should be short term resistance now.Palladium saw some Hedge Fund profit taking yesterday seeing it ease 10 usd or so.
Barclays Capital