* Risk currencies and equities down, but EUR and JPY stable
* FOMC minutes unlikely to bring clarity
* US home sales to surprise positively
* We recommend short-dated USDJPY RKI risk reversals
What to watch for today
CAD: Retail bounce. We expect retail sales to have posted a stronger 0.5% rise in June, which, following the 0.3% rise in May, would be the first back-toback increase since October/November last year. However, our economist notes that auto sales will account for the rise, and this would still leave the smoother QoQ profile in negative territory thanks to the weak April reading. With markets now pricing policy tightening in Canada by year-end, we think the CAD is vulnerable at current levels to a deterioration in local data and/or renewed disappointment in US numbers.
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