European FX Daily

* Asia FX in tight ranges
* Flash PMIs key on the calendar in the euro zone this week
* In the US, durable goods orders and FOMC minutes in focus

What to watch for this week

US: Durable update. The July durable goods report on Friday will be the main data point of the week. We expect a solid 0.5% rise in the headline, which would be the third monthly solid rise in a row. However, our estimate is below the 2% consensus. Moreover, the ex-transportation and core orders lines are likely to remain quite weak, echoing the message from the ISM new orders index. Our economists note that a further slide in core orders below shipments would raise concerns but also boost QE3 prospects. Earlier in the week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday are unlikely to provide more clarity on the outlook for September easing than the statement following the meeting. Markets will be particularly interested in any indication on what the data threshold for new asset purchases
might be.

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