G10
EUR – So we open the week in asia with a nice push to a new years low at 1.2225, however we bounce right back as mkt takes some profit on this 3% move into the EU finance ministers meeting later today – That said we still only have managed a move back to the ldn close at 1.2295 and already seeing some spec selling here. Order book stops suggest a squeeze 1.23-1.2340 possible on a mini spike but that feels like a nice fade on the day. With a stop back above 1.2430 – downside clear until 1.2210 where sell orders again start all way to 1.2080.
GBP – Pressure on the EUR continues, with deconstructive weekly closes posted on Friday. EUR/GBP has posted a low of 0.7906 and technically, looks broken. Supply now following the move lower, with sellers coming in ahead of 0.7950 previous low and then ahead of 0.8000. Demand at around 0.7900 on my books also but I don’t foresee any significant bounce in the pair. Cable takes a little bit of a back seat as EURO crosses once again drive the moves but the U.K isn’t without its own problems. 1.5500 and 1.5550 now should attract some offers and we should ghost the spotlight pair, (EUR/USD), until specific EUR/GBP flow gets executed. No data today.
JPY – Holds up suprisingly well still ahead of that 79.20/30 support, possibly as mkt hopes that we get further BOJ easing later this week – for now 79.20/30 support 79.80 then 80.10 still has exporter selling and will take something extra to push us through.
AUD (1.0190) – rolling over ever so slightly, the divergence we saw on the charts toward the end of last week (daily, 4 hrly etc) starting to be reflected in the price. We have still failed to move materially lower, this 1.0180 level seems to be harbouring some sort of buying interest for now. 1.0230 remains the first level topside for me, we failed here in late NY and it should be sticky there for now. We see a good mix of offers and ST stops at this level. Above here we are better offered until 1.0280, where we run into some decent s/l activity. This should be the level where shorts place their stops, though if you can stomach it I still prefer a stop up through 1.0330. We saw a decent mix of names selling on Friday afternoon – I followed suit, and will probably add more through 1.0180 should we break with ease. Bids don’t hit the books until 1.0130/35.
CAD – A stumbling US workforce stemming the tide of EURxxx supply towards the end of last week, USDCAD traded from 1.0140 up above 1.02 but hasn’t sustained a gain above here. Key level on downside for funds is 1.0060/80 breakout level from early May which was start of the move up to 1.04. Should be some offers 1.0230/40 which is short term level to overcome topside. Orderbook has a few stops in EURCAD above 1.2590 but baring any fresh positive spin from another finmin conference today can’t see why EURCAD rallies should not be sold into. Square for now but will look to sell EURCAD above 1.26 if we see it.
Resistance 1.0240 1.0280 1.0350
Support 1.0140 1.0100 1.0080
Scandies – Overall picture hasn’t changed in Scandies that much, some bids in EURSEK appearing around 8.60/61 but still favour selling back towards 8.70 with a stop above 8.74. NOKSEK breaking down main supporter of EURNOK which still feels it has some catching up to do, CPI tomorrow the focus initially and will look to sell against 7.55 if we see it, in my mind despite the backdrop of the oil strike risks still feels like EURNOK should play some catch-up if NOKSEK can find a short term base I think EURNOK will be back at 7.47.
EURSEK support: 8.61 8.59 8.40!? resistance 8.68 8.70 8.74
EURNOK support: 7.48 7.43 7.40 resistance 7.55 7.60 7.6650
Barclays Capital