While the path of least resistance looks to remain up in the Dollar to start today, recent scheduled data from the US could mean that the Dollar will have trouble sustaining the upward track of the last week. However, we do think that the trade is poised to buy the rumor into the US Fed testimony to Congress. On the other hand, it is also possible that Congress will take a stand against rising rates for fear of prematurely undermining the US recovery. The Dollar bulls might also see flight to quality interest wane ahead because of the potential positive progression of Greek/EU negotiations. Expectations of a rise in a private US home price survey might support the Dollar ahead of the Fed testimony kick-off but data from Consumer Confidence might undermine the Dollar midmorning because of expectations of a setback in that report. Unless the March Dollar index takes out the February 11th high of 95.23 we will look for topping action in the Dollar over the coming trading sessions.
Technical Outlook: The crossover up in the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 95.33. The next area of resistance is around 94.99 and 95.33, while 1st support hits today at 94.35 and below there at 94.05.