The dollar is at least partially undermined by the surprise cease-fire deal in the Ukraine. However, the other shoe may be poised to drop on the Dollar bulls as the Greek debt deal is expected to be achieved early next week. However, as usual anything dealing with Europe and there is usually a fly in the ointment as it appeared as if a debt deal was in the offing this morning only to be derailed at the last minute. However, the Greek leader needs to show some resistance to fulfill his campaign promises but reality will soon clip his wings and a deal will be gained. We think the Dollar is poised to make a significant top, especially with a series of headwinds against the Euro zone abating. In fact, today’s US scheduled data flows could add some near term weakness in the Dollar as claims are expected to rise and retail sales are expected to be a little weaker. We at least see a return to consolidation support down at 93.56 in the March Dollar. A critical uptrend channel support line is seen down at 94.22 and that pivot point rises to 94.36 on Friday and the violation of that trend line could give topping forecasts significant credence.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive shortterm indicator for trend. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 95.54. The next area of resistance is around 95.37 and 95.54, while 1st support hits today at 94.89 and below there at 94.58.