The Dollar sits poised to make a weak upside breakout on its charts in the wake of hawkish Fed talk, residual support from stellar non-farm payroll results last week and perhaps because of ideas that the Russians won’t agree to a Peace deal. It would be surprising to see Russia agree to Peace especially with Putin attending the summit today but stranger things have happened. We have more confidence in the prospect of a Greek solution especially after the rumor mill yesterday suggested the potential for a 6 month extension or bridge program that would kick the can down the road until September. While there will be a Treasury Statement and a Fed speech from Fisher later today, the most important scheduled development from the US today looks to be weekly US oil inventories. The trade generally fears evidence of another noted build in US oil inventories, as that could rekindle slowing fears and deflationary fears again which in turn might apply some pressure to the Dollar. Up-trend channel support in the March Dollar index is seen down at 94.15 today and that support level rises to 94.31 on Thursday.
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 95.31. The next area of resistance is around 95.11 and 95.31, while 1st support hits today at 94.58 and below there at 94.25.