The Euro generally remains off balance and vulnerable to the Ukraine situation and the Greece situation. Therefore the direction of the Euro is likely to be discovered just after the opening of the stock market but perhaps not until 10:30 central time. As for the timing of the Peace Summit which should probably be called a “divide up territory” summit it is difficult to predict as it would be unlike Putin to show up in person and in turn back down without gaining something. In short we can’t rule out a downside extension in the Euro but we think the Euro is getting close to a major bottoming. Buy a June Euro 1.1850 call at 80 and wait to sell a higher strike call later on.
Technical Outlook: Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside target is 113.8875. The next area of resistance is around 113.5450 and 113.8875, while 1st support hits today at 112.8150 and below there at 112.4275.