Thin support is seen down at 1.1308 in the March Euro and given the fresh political and economic anxiety flowing from Greece, the odds of a downside breakout in the Euro are on the rise. Countervailing negative sentiment toward the Euro is news of record German exports and rising Euro zone sentiment from the initial EU QE efforts. Pushed into the market we have to favor the downside tilt especially with the Kremlin lashing back at the hardline stance levied against Russia last week by officials from the US, Ukraine, Germany and the UK. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of February 3rd for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 188,728 contracts, an increase of 11,432 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 249,878 contracts, an increase of 10,050 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 61,151 contracts, a decrease of 1,381 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 249,879 contracts. This represents an increase of 10,051 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next upside objective is 115.3025. The next area of resistance is around 114.1050 and 115.3025, while 1st support hits today at 112.4350 and below there at 111.9625.