The Dollar has weakened consistently this week in the face of generally soft US data, slightly improved data from the euro zone and also because of gains in equities which in turn have reduced the safe haven demand for the Greenback. It is also possible that some of the Dollar declines of late have been the result of declining expectations for a summer US rate hike. With the US Non-farm payroll result due out later this morning and the Dollar down to critical longer term chart support levels, the Dollar looks to face an extremely critical pivot point ahead. Another issue that might be pressuring the Dollar is hope for progress in the Ukraine with several EU leaders meeting with Putin today. Critical up-trend channel support in the March Dollar index this morning is seen at 93.68 and a key downside breakout would be seen on a decline below 93.38. Pushed into the market we favor the downward tilt.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside target is now at 92.79. The next area of resistance is around 94.21 and 94.99, while 1st support hits today at 93.11 and below there at 92.79.