AUD/USD Analysis

The AUD/USD closed in New York at $0.7766, and started this morning’s dealings with a gap lower, opening at $0.7735 and then held a $0.7726 to $0.7744 range. The catalyst for the early dip was China’s Manufacturing PMI for January out over the weekend, with the headline index coming in at 49.8 (below expectations of 50.2). The early dip proved to be short-lived, as local corporate demand surfaced and aussie-dollar then rallied to $0.7769. Further US dollar weakness benefited the aussie, which then popped up to $0.7785. It held near there and extended the hig to $0.7791 and then backed away a bit after a muted reaction to the HSBC final China PMI was released. Aussie-dollar slipped to around $0.7750 but was largely supported through the rest of the morning as attention moved back to the RBA decision due tomorrow. Aussie-dollar last traded at $0.7777. Initial support is at $0.7720 (29 Jan low), a break will target a move to $0.7705 (July 2009 low) below there $0.7700 barrier will provide some support, as usual, expect buying ahead and stops below. Resistance is seen at $0.7837 marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8025 to $0.7720 fall. Macro sell orders are noted between $0.7790 to $0.7800.