Following on from Thursday’s dip below the falling daily channel base the AUD/USD remained heavy and capped ahead of the $0.7799 level to end the week. While the $0.7799 level caps immediate pressure remains on the falling daily channel base around $0.7725 today with overall focus having shifted to the falling weekly channel base that comes in around $0.7590. Bulls now need a close above $0.7799 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7908 to shift immediate focus back to layers of resistance in the $0.8055-0.8150 region where the 21-DMA and daily channel top ($0.8168) are located.
RES 4: $0.8078- 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8055 – High Jan 23, 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.7908 – High Jan 29
RES 1: $0.7799 – Hourly resistance Jan 29
LPRICE: $0.7775
SUP 1: $0.7720 – 2015 Low Jan 29
SUP 2: $0.7705 – Monthly Low July 13 2009
SUP 3: $0.7607 – Falling weekly channel base
SUP 4: $0.7452 – Low May 18 2009
Fresh 2015 and 4 year lows continued Friday with bears firmly focused on the $0.7050-0.7126 region where the falling weekly channel base is located. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above $0.7299 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7390 to shift immediate focus to the $0.7494-0.7608 region. Key concerns for bears are seen coming from O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases
RES 4: $0.7494 – High Jan 28
RES 3: $0.7398 – Low Jan 26 now resistance
RES 2: $0.7346 – High Jan 29
RES 1: $0.7299 – High Jan 29
LPRICE: $0.7260
SUP 1: $0.7126 – 2011 Low Mar 17 2011
SUP 2: $0.7050 – Falling weekly channel base
SUP 3: $0.6951 – Monthly Low Aug 25 2010
SUP 4: $0.6797 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
The Bollinger band top (NZ$1.0780) limited follow through last week before the AUD/NZD dipped back towards the rising daily trend line Friday. Bears look for a close below NZ$1.0662 to confirm a break of the trend line and an easing of bullish pressure. Overall bears need to see a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to the 2015 low. While the trend line supports, bulls remain focused on the NZ$1.0860-1.0910 region where 100 & 200-DMAs are located
RES 4: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8, 100-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0831 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.1308-1.0354
RES 2: NZ$1.0795 – High Jan 29
RES 1: NZ$1.0739 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0690
SUP 1: NZ$1.0662 – Rising daily trend line, Low Jan 30
SUP 2: NZ$1.0612 – Low Jan 28
SUP 3: NZ$1.0583 – Low Jan 23, 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0462 – Low Jan 14
The ¥94.83 resistance level confirmed significance Wednesday with the AUD/JPY remaining capped ahead and the sell-off that has followed seeing a dip below falling daily channel base. Immediate bearish focus now shifts to the ¥88.23-90.08 region where 2014 lows are located. Bulls now need a close above ¥92.44 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above ¥93.27 to shift focus back to the layers of resistance in the ¥94.83-96.50 region where key DMAs and the channel top are located
RES 4: ¥95.85 – High Jan 22
RES 3: ¥94.83 – Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance
RES 2: ¥93.27 – High Jan 29
RES 1: ¥92.44 – Hourly support Jan 29 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥90.90
SUP 1: ¥90.08 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 2: ¥89.19 – 200-WMA
SUP 3: ¥88.23 – 2014 Low Feb 3
SUP 4: ¥86.41 – Monthly Low Aug 2013
The recovery from Monday’s 2015 and 4 month lows resumed Thursday with an aggressive rally that saw the EUR/AUD close above 21, 100 & 200-DMAs. Friday’s attempt to carry on with the move resulted in a spike above the 55-DMA (A$1.4650) before the pair dipped below the 200-DMA (A$1.4508) for a relatively bearish close. The 21-DMA remains key support this week with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and target 2015 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4922 – Low Dec 29 now resistance
RES 3: A$1.4875 – 2015 High Jan 5
RES 2: A$1.4767 – High Jan 6
RES 1: A$1.4670 – High Jan 30
LPRICE: A$1.4551
SUP 1: A$1.4478 – Low Jan 30
SUP 2: A$1.4408 – High Jan 22 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4394 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4273 – Low Jan 29