Recent failures at the falling daily channel top followed by closes below the 21-DMA have seen the AUD/USD dip below the falling daily channel base ($0.7739) on the way to fresh 5+ year lows. Bears now shift their focus to the falling weekly channel base that comes in around $0.7607. Bulls now need a close above $0.7908 to ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus back to layers of resistance in the $0.8055-0.8168 region where the 21-DMA and daily channel top ($0.8168) are located. Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies and Bollinger band bases
RES 4: $0.8078- 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8055 – High Jan 23
RES 2: $0.7908 – High Jan 29
RES 1: $0.7799 – Hourly resistance Jan 29
LPRICE: $0.7775
SUP 1: $0.7720 – 2015 Low Jan 29
SUP 2: $0.7705 – Monthly Low July 13 2009
SUP 3: $0.7607 – Falling weekly channel base
SUP 4: $0.7452 – Low May 18 2009
Fresh 2015 and 4 year lows continue for the NZD/USD with bears firmly focused on the $0.7098-0.7126 region where the falling weekly channel base is located. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above $0.7398 to ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to the $0.7494-0.7608 region. Key concerns for bears are seen coming from O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases.
RES 4: $0.7528 – Hourly resistance Jan 23
RES 3: $0.7494 – High Jan 28
RES 2: $0.7398 – Low Jan 26 now resistance
RES 1: $0.7346 – High Jan 29
LPRICE: $0.7260
SUP 1: $0.7126 – 2011 Low Mar 17 2011
SUP 2: $0.7098 – Falling weekly channel base
SUP 3: $0.6951 – Monthly Low Aug 25 2010
SUP 4: $0.6797 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
The first close above the 55-DMA ($1.0660) late Wednesday was followed up with a dip back towards this level Thursday. Layers of support have developed in the $1.0564-1.0660 region with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the rising daily trend line, ending bullish hopes and shifting overall focus back to the 2015 low. While the rising daily trend line supports bulls remain focused on the $1.0867-1.0944 region
RES 4: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8, 100-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0831 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.1308-1.0354
RES 2: NZ$1.0795 – High Jan 29
RES 1: NZ$1.0739 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0697
SUP 1: NZ$1.0640 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 2: NZ$1.0564 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0533 – Low Jan 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.0462 – Low Jan 14
The ¥94.83 resistance level confirmed significance Wednesday with the AUD/JPY remaining capped ahead and the sell-off that has followed seeing the falling daily channel base firmly in the sights. Bulls now need a close above ¥93.27 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus back to the layers of resistance in the ¥94.83-96.50 region where key DMAs and the channel top are located.
RES 4: ¥95.85 – High Jan 22
RES 3: ¥94.83 – Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance
RES 2: ¥93.27 – High Jan 29
RES 1: ¥92.44 – Hourly support Jan 29 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥91.85
SUP 1: ¥91.14 – Falling daily channel base, Low Mar 27
SUP 2: ¥90.08 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: ¥89.29 – 200-WMA
SUP 4: ¥88.22 – 2014 Low Feb 3
The recovery from Monday’s 2015 and 4 month lows resumed Thursday with an aggressive rally that sees the pair close above 21, 100 & 200-DMAs with the 55-DMA having capped so far. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to confirm a shift in overall focus to the Dec monthly highs (A$1.5333). Layers of support have developed with bears now needing a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and see focus return to 2015 lows at A$1.3965.
RES 4: A$1.4922 – Low Dec 29 now resistance
RES 3: A$1.4875 – 2015 High Jan 5
RES 2: A$1.4767 – High Jan 6
RES 1: A$1.4644 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4580
SUP 1: A$1.4511 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4411 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4273 – Low Jan 29
SUP 4: A$1.4109 – Low Jan 26