Within the space of an hour on Thursday morning, both the FOMC and the RBNZ will have delivered their policy missives for January. These statements will not be accompanied by fresh forecasts nor press conferences. We think the market is looking for too strong a change in the RBNZ, and is underestimating the risk of a more cautious tone in the Fed. If we’re right, NZD/USD could pop sharply higher. We’d take that as an opportunity to (re-)sell NZD on a strategic basis.
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