The 21-DMA confirmed significance as resistance Thursday with it capping on the day and the resulting sell-off pressuring the $0.8032-42 region where 2015 and 5+ year los are located. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8301 to confirm a break of the channel top. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears but bears favour fresh 5+ year lows and remain focused on the channel base.
RES 4: $0.8326 – 55-DMA
RES 3: $0.8301 – High Dec 12
RES 2: $0.8228 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8144 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.8050
SUP 1: $0.8042 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.8032 – 2015 Low Jan 7
SUP 3: $0.7962 – Low July 16 2009
SUP 4: $0.7798 – Falling daily channel base
Fresh 2015 and nearly 3 year lows Thursday see focus shift to the $0.7373-0.7461 region where 2012 lows are located. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls needing a close above $0.7618 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7746 to shift focus back to the $0.7858-0.7892 region with the 100-DMA noted at $0.7858. The Bollinger band bases remain key concerns for bears but while $0.7618-0.7746 caps bears remain in control.
RES 4: $0.7746 – Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 3: $0.7710 – High Jan 21
RES 2: $0.7618 – Low Jan 20 now resistance
RES 1: $0.7584 – High Jan 22
LPRICE: $0.7505
SUP 1: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
SUP 2: $0.7373 – Monthly Low Nov 25 2011
SUP 3: $0.7126 – 2011 Low Mar 17 2011
SUP 4: $0.6951 – Monthly Low Aug 25 2010
AUD/NZD continues to trade above the Bollinger band top (NZ$1.0701) as it flirts with the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0706) and consolidates Tuesday’s sharp move higher. Initial support remains at NZ$1.0667 with bears needing a close below to ease the bullish pressure and shift focus back to the NZ$1.0460-1.0533 region. Bulls remain focused on the NZ$1.0756-1.0944 region where the Ichimoku cloud, key DMAs and Fibonacci retracements are located
RES 4: NZ$1.0889 – 200-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8
RES 2: NZ$1.0831 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.1308-1.0354
RES 1: NZ$1.0758 – High Jan 22
LPRICE: NZ$1.0721
SUP 1: NZ$1.0667 – Low Jan 21
SUP 2: NZ$1.0580 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: NZ$1.0533 – Low Jan 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.0511 – Hourly support Jan 16
The close marginally above the 21-DMA and channel top Tuesday lacked follow through having failed ahead of the ¥97.47-66 region where the 100-DMA is located. The sell-off that followed has seen immediate bearish focus shift to the ¥94.26-94 region and overall focus to the ¥91.76 level where the channel base and Oct monthly low are located. Bulls need a close above ¥96.20 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to ¥97.28-66
RES 4: ¥97.15 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: ¥96.48 – 200-DMA
RES 2: ¥96.20 – Hourly support Jan 21 now resistance
RES 1: ¥95.85 – High Jan 22
LPRICE: ¥95.41
SUP 1: ¥95.03 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥94.94 – Low Jan 16
SUP 3: ¥94.26 – 2015 Low Jan 14
SUP 4: ¥91.76 – Falling daily channel base
Following on from Wednesday’s aggressive bounce the EUR/AUD managed a pop above the falling daily channel top (A$1.4395) off Dec highs before heading sharply lower, shifting bearish focus back to the A$1.3801-1.4012 region. The sharp fall has seen initial resistance develop on the hourlies at A$1.4159 but bulls need a close above A$1.4271 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus back to A$1.4409.
RES 4: A$1.4524 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4409 – High Jan 22
RES 2: A$1.4271 – Hourly support Jan 22 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4159 – Hourly resistance Jan 22
LPRICE: A$1.4115
SUP 1: A$1.4058 – Low Jan 22
SUP 2: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
SUP 3: A$1.3941 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5