Attempts to rally recently have stalled ahead of the falling daily channel top with Wednesday’s failure resulting in a break of the 21-DMA and $0.8130 support. The break lower confirms immediate bearish focus on the $0.8032 2015 low and overall focus on the falling daily channel base. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8301 to confirm a break of the channel top. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears.
RES 4: $0.8335 – 55-DMA
RES 3: $0.8301 – High Dec 12
RES 2: $0.8240 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8146 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.8091
SUP 1: $0.8069 – Low Jan 14
SUP 2: $0.8052 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8032 – 2015 Low Jan 7
SUP 4: $0.7810 – Falling daily channel base
Last week’s failure at the 100-DMA has resulted in a sell-off to fresh 2015 and nearly 3 year lows with immediate focus on the daily trend line projection and overall focus on the $0.7373-0.7461 region. Initial resistance is now noted at the Jan 21 low with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure. Overall bulls need a close above $0.7746 to shift focus higher to the $0.7866-92 region.
RES 4: $0.7808 – High Jan 19
RES 3: $0.7746 – Low Jan 16 now resistance
RES 2: $0.7710 – High Jan 21
RES 1: $0.7618 – Low Jan 20 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.7565
SUP 1: $0.7547 – Falling daily trend line projection
SUP 2: $0.7516 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
SUP 4: $0.7373 – Monthly Low Nov 25 2011
AUD/NZD continues to trade above the Bollinger band top (NZ$1.0661) as it flirts with the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0706) and consolidates Tuesday’s sharp move higher. Initial support is now noted at the NZ$1.0663 level with bears needing a close below to ease the bullish pressure and shift focus back to the NZ$1.0460-1.0533 region. Bulls initially focus on the NZ$1.0756-1.0944 region where the Ichimoku cloud, key DMAs and Fibonacci retracements are located.
RES 4: NZ$1.0890 – 200-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0867 – High Dec 8
RES 2: NZ$1.0831 – 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 1.1308-1.0354
RES 1: NZ$1.0756 – Low Dec 4 now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0688
SUP 1: NZ$1.0663 – Hourly support Jan 21
SUP 2: NZ$1.0580 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: NZ$1.0533 – Low Jan 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.0511 – Hourly support Jan 16
The close marginally above the 21-DMA and channel top Tuesday lacked follow through having failed ahead of the ¥97.47-66 region where the 100-DMA is located. The sell-off that followed has seen immediate bearish focus shift to the ¥94.26-94 region and overall focus to the ¥91.76-92 region where the channel base and Oct monthly low are located. Bulls now need a close above ¥96.20 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to ¥97.28-66.
RES 4: ¥97.49 – 100-DMA
RES 3: ¥97.28 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: ¥96.48 – 200-DMA
RES 1: ¥96.20 – Hourly support Jan 21 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥95.41
SUP 1: ¥95.20 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥94.94 – Low Jan 16
SUP 3: ¥94.26 – 2015 Low Jan 14
SUP 4: ¥91.92 – Falling daily channel base
The bounce from recent lows gathered momentum Wednesday with the close above A$1.4217 easing bearish pressure and shifting focus to the A$1.4366-1.4614 region where key DMAs and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement are located. Overall bulls now need a close above A$1.4658 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the A$1.5333 Dec monthly highs. Bears now need a close below A$1.4217 to reconfirm the bearish bias and shift focus back to A$1.3801-1.4012.
RES 4: A$1.4614 – High Jan 14
RES 3: A$1.4598 – 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4527 – 200-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4366 – Low Jan 12 2015 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4315
SUP 1: A$1.4217 – Alternating support/resistance level
SUP 2: A$1.4067 – Low Jan 21
SUP 3: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
SUP 4: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5