Failure to close below the 21-DMA ($0.8142) despite recent flirtations resulted in a rally that confirmed significance of the falling daily channel top Thursday. Bulls will need to see a close above $0.8301 to confirm a break of the channel top and shift immediate focus to the $0.8363-78 region. On the other hand, bears need a close below $0.8130 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift overall focus to the channel base.
RES 4: $0.8378 – High Dec 11
RES 3: $0.8363 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8301 – High Dec 12
RES 1: $0.8275 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $0.8220
SUP 1: $0.8198 – Hourly support Jan 15
SUP 2: $0.8130 – Low Jan 15
SUP 3: $0.8069 – Low Jan 14
SUP 4: $0.8032 – 2015 Low Jan 7
Thursday’s rally stalled at the 100-DMA with bulls now needing a close above Thursday’s $0.7890 high to confirm a break and to shift focus to the $0.7980-0.8039 region. While the $0.7886-90 region caps a bearish bias remains with bears looking for a close below Friday’s low to reconfirm immediate focus on 2014 lows. Flat Bollinger bands are suggestive of further range trading
RES 4: $0.7929 – High Nov 27
RES 3: $0.7890 – High Jan 15
RES 2: $0.7886 – 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.7856 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.7791
SUP 1: $0.7746 – Low Jan 16
SUP 2: $0.7679 – Low Jan 6
SUP 3: $0.7674 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
AUD/NZD continues to find support on dips below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0484) with the NZ$1.0460 level having supported on the sharp pullback from ahead of the NZ$1.0651 resistance level and above the Bollinger band top. Bears continue to look for a close below NZ$1.0460 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus back to 2015 lows. While NZ$1.0460 supports, a bullish bias remains targeting the NZ$1.0651-1.0758 region where the 55-DMA is located.
RES 4: NZ$1.0698 – High Dec 11
RES 3: NZ$1.0651 – High Dec 15
RES 2: NZ$1.0595 – Hourly support Jan 15 now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0579 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: NZ$1.0557
SUP 1: NZ$1.0460 – Low Jan 14
SUP 2: NZ$1.0435 – High Jan 7 now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0388 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0353 – 2015 & Record Low Jan 7
Flirtation with the falling daily channel top (¥95.68) continues for the AUD/JPY following Wednesday’s bounce from 3 month lows. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top and above ¥97.66 to add support to the bullish case, initially targeting ¥98.35-80 and then ¥99.49-87 above. Bear need a close below ¥95.49 to provide breathing space and below ¥94.94 to shift focus back to the channel base (¥91.68).
RES 4: ¥98.80 – High Dec 11
RES 3: ¥98.35 – High Dec 29
RES 2: ¥97.66 – High Jan 12
RES 1: ¥97.07 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: ¥96.60
SUP 1: ¥95.49 – Hourly support Jan 16
SUP 2: ¥94.94 – Low Jan 16
SUP 3: ¥95.17 – Low Jan 15
SUP 4: ¥94.76 – Hourly support Jan 14
The recent failures to manage a close above the 200-DMA despite numerous spikes above resulted in a sharp sell-off that confirms overall focus on the 2014 low. Key concerns for bears come from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base. In saying that, bulls now need a close above A$1.4217 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.4366 to shift focus back to the A$1.4539-1.4767 region where key DMAs are located.
RES 4: A$1.4614 – High Jan 14
RES 3: A$1.4539 – 200-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4366 – Low Jan 12 2015 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4217 – Monthly low Oct 31 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4063
SUP 1: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
SUP 2: A$1.3835 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.3801 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: A$1.3612 – 200-WMA