The Dollar has not been able to rise to fresh new highs in the face of the most recent global deflationary fear mongering event. The trade continues to see the symptoms of severe slowing from the action in crude oil, as proof of slowing and given the rather lofty spec and fund long in crude oil futures and options, the prospect of further liquidation in crude oil is rather high. Perhaps the Dollar is being held back recently by a thin US scheduled report flow, which remains inactive again today. One might have expected the Dollar to have gained some ground in the wake of talk that the Fed might be poised to remove “patient” from its statement, but the Dollar just doesn’t seem to be garnering much in the way of safe haven interest in the wake of this week’s deflationary knock-down. Up-trend channel support in the March Dollar Index is seen at 92.10 and that support rises to 92.33 on Wednesday.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 91.56. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 92.57 and 92.88, while 1st support hits today at 91.91 and below there at 91.56.