The bounce from recent 5+ year lows has so far stalled ahead of the 21-DMA with bulls needing a close above this level to ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to the $0.8370-0.8469 region where the channel top and 55-DMA are located. Initial support has developed on the hourlies at $0.8102 with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and overall focus on a move lower that targets the falling daily channel base. The Bollinger band base remains a key concern for bears.
RES 4: $0.8235 – High Dec 17
RES 3: $0.8218 – High Dec 31
RES 2: $0.8168 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8158 – High Jan 6
LPRICE: $0.8106
SUP 1: $0.8102 – Hourly support Jan 6
SUP 2: $0.8035 – 2015 Low Jan 5, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7962 – Low July 16 2009
SUP 4: $0.7840 – Falling daily channel base
The bounce from ahead of the 2014 low and below the Bollinger band base gathered momentum Tuesday with focus having shifted to the layers of resistance $0.7839-0.7980 including the Bollinger top, channel top and 100-DMA. Layers of support have accumulated with bears now needing a close back below $0.7718 to confirm a break back below the 21-DMA and to shift focus back to the 2014 low. The Bollinger top is seen as they key concern for bulls today
RES 4: $0.7933 – 100-DMA
RES 3: $0.7873 – High Dec 11
RES 2: $0.7850 – High Dec 30
RES 1: $0.7839 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.7787
SUP 1: $0.7749 – Hourly resistance Jan 6 now support
SUP 2: $0.7718 – Hourly resistance Jan 6 now support
SUP 3: $0.7679 – Low Jan 6
SUP 4: $0.7667 – Bollinger band base
Monday’s rejection from above the 21-DMA resulted in a sell-off and fresh 2015/record lows on Tuesday with overall focus having returned to the Fibonacci projections. The Bollinger band base remains the immediate focus for bears with follow through likely to be limited. Layers of resistance have accumulated with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0499 to ease bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0573 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target NZ$1.0698-1.0758
RES 4: NZ$1.0573 – High Dec Jan 5
RES 3: NZ$1.0541 – High Jan 6
RES 2: NZ$1.0499 – Hourly support Jan 6 now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0466 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0415
SUP 1: NZ$1.0392 – 2015 & Record Low Jan 6, Daily trend line
SUP 2: NZ$1.0350 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0251 – 1.382 Fibonacci projection 1.0870-1.0422
SUP 4: NZ$1.0198 – 1.500 Fibonacci projection 1.0870-1.0422
Pressure on the 200-DMA resulted in a break below Tuesday with the Bollinger band base currently limiting follow through. The likely close below the 200-DMA adds weight to the bearish case and sees immediate focus on layers of support in the ¥94.74-95.40 region where key WMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close back above ¥97.30 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to the key ¥98.35-80 region where the 55-DMA is located.
RES 4: ¥98.35 – High Dec 29
RES 3: ¥97.66 – Hourly resistance Jan 2
RES 2: ¥97.30 – Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 1: ¥96.53 – Hourly support Jan 6 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥96.17
SUP 1: ¥95.91 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥95.40 – 55-WMA
SUP 3: ¥95.23 – Monthly Low Dec 16
SUP 4: ¥94.97 – 100-WMA
O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base are now seen as key concerns for bears following the correction from Dec monthly highs with immediate focus on the layers of support in the A$1.4428-1.4551 region where key DMAs and channel bases are located. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above A$1.4767 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.5018 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus back to the Dec monthly high.
RES 4: A$1.4922 – Low Dec 29 now resistance
RES 3: A$1.4875 – High Dec 31
RES 2: A$1.4828 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: A$1.4767 – High Jan 6
LPRICE: A$1.4681
SUP 1: A$1.4551 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4509 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4482 – Rising daily channel base
SUP 4: A$1.4428 – Low Nov 25