Fresh 5+ year lows to start the new week confirm overall bearish focus on the falling daily channel base coming in around $0.7852 today. The Bollinger band base remains the key concern for bears with it currently limiting follow through. Layers of resistance have accumulated in the $0.8155-0.8235 region with bulls needing a close above $0.8155 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8235 to shift focus back to the $0.8378-0.8469 region where the channel top and 55-DMA are located.
RES 4: $0.8235 – High Dec 17
RES 3: $0.8218 – High Dec 31
RES 2: $0.8155 – Previous daily low now resistance
RES 1: $0.8107 – High Jan 5
LPRICE: $0.8099
SUP 1: $0.8035 – 2015 Low Jan 5, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.7962 – Low July 16 2009
SUP 3: $0.7852 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.7705 – Monthly low July 13 2009
The sell-off to start the new week bounced from below the Bollinger band base and from marginally ahead of the 2014 low with the Bollinger band base seen as the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.7873 to confirm a break of the falling daily trend line and to shift focus to the $0.7980-0.8039 region. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.7873 – High Dec 11
RES 3: $0.7850 – High Dec 30
RES 2: $0.7799 – High Jan 2
RES 1: $0.7751 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.7703
SUP 1: $0.7654 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
SUP 3: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
SUP 4: $0.7373 – Monthly Low Nov 25 2011
The recovery from 2014 and record lows continued to start the new week before retreating from above the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0549) and falling daily trend line with bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close. Bulls now look for a close above Monday’s NZ$1.0531 high to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0651-1.0758 region. While NZ$1.0573 caps bears initially target the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: NZ$1.0649 – High Dec 15
RES 3: NZ$1.0609 – High Dec 17
RES 2: NZ$1.0573 – High Dec Jan 5
RES 1: NZ$1.0531 – Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0505
SUP 1: NZ$1.0466 – Hourly support Jan 2
SUP 2: NZ$1.0422 – 2014 Low Dec 29
SUP 3: NZ$1.0413 – 1.618 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
SUP 4: NZ$1.0349 – Bollinger band base
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA (¥97.65) failed to produce further topside with the ¥98.35-80 region remaining key resistance. The pullback from this region has resulted in pressure returning to the 200-DMA with it supporting on the first attempt. The Bollinger band base remains the key concern for bears but with a close above ¥97.66 now needed to ease bearish pressure focus remains on a break lower and the Dec monthly low
RES 4: ¥98.65 – 55-DMA
RES 3: ¥98.35 – High Dec 29
RES 2: ¥97.66 – Hourly resistance Jan 2
RES 1: ¥97.30 – Hourly resistance Jan 5
LPRICE: ¥96.81
SUP 1: ¥96.44 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: ¥96.00 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 91.76-102.87
SUP 3: ¥95.86 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥95.23 – Monthly Low Dec 16
O/S daily studies remain key concerns for bears following the correction from Dec monthly highs as bears retain overall focus on the layers of support in the A$1.4428-1.4552 region where 100 & 200-DMAs are located. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above A$1.4922 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.5018 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus back to the A$1.5333 Dec
monthly high.
RES 4: A$1.5018 – High Dec 29
RES 3: A$1.4981 – 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4922 – Low Dec 29 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4864 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: A$1.4758
SUP 1: A$1.4702 – Low Jan 5
SUP 2: A$1.4656 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.4237-1.5333
SUP 3: A$1.4552 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4548 – Falling daily channel base