The failure at the 21-DMA ($0.8188) last week and ahead of the $0.8235 resistance was followed up with a move to fresh 2014 and 4+ year lows Friday with immediate focus on the 2010 low and overall bearish focus on the falling daily channel base. The $0.8155-0.8235 region is seen as key resistance with bulls needing a close above $0.8155 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8235 to shift focus back to the $0.8378-0.8480 region where the channel top and 55-DMA are located
RES 4: $0.8378 – High Dec 11
RES 3: $0.8299 – High Dec 12
RES 2: $0.8235 – High Dec 17
RES 1: $0.8155 – Previous daily low now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8084
SUP 1: $0.8068 – 2010 Low May 25 2010
SUP 2: $0.8045 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7962 – Low July 16 2009
SUP 4: $0.7864 – Falling daily channel base
After having remained capped at the $0.7850 level last week with the falling daily tend line noted above, the sell-off Friday and close below the 21-DMA ($0.7752) confirmed the bearish bias with immediate focus on 2014 lows. Bulls now need a close above $$0.7799 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7873 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to the $0.7980-0.8039 region. The Bollinger band base is the key concern for bears.
RES 4: $0.7873 – High Dec 11, Falling daily trend line
RES 3: $0.7850 – High Dec 30
RES 2: $0.7799 – High Jan 2
RES 1: $0.7742 – Hourly support Jan 2 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.7685
SUP 1: $0.7679 – Low Dec 18
SUP 2: $0.7656 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
SUP 4: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
The recovery from 2014 and record lows last week combined with correcting O/S daily studies are concerns for bears and are hinting at a bigger correction. In saying that, bulls need a close above the NZ$1.0561 resistance where the 21-DMA is located to confirm a break of the falling daily trend line, an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0649-1.0758 region. While NZ$1.0561 caps
bears will retain the upper hand and target Fibonacci projections.
RES 4: NZ$1.0649 – High Dec 15
RES 3: NZ$1.0609 – High Dec 17
RES 2: NZ$1.0561 – High Dec 22, 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0542 – Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: NZ$1.0511
SUP 1: NZ$1.0466 – Hourly support Jan 2
SUP 2: NZ$1.0422 – 2014 Low Dec 29
SUP 3: NZ$1.0413 – 1.618 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
SUP 4: NZ$1.0332 – 1.764 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA (¥97.86) have failed to produce further topside with the ¥98.35-80 region remaining key resistance. The pullback from this region has resulted in pressure returning to the 100-DMA (¥97.54) with bears favouring a break lower that initially targets the 200-DMA while the ¥98.35-80 region caps. Bulls need a close above ¥98.80 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the ¥99.49-85 region
RES 4: ¥99.49 – High Dec 10
RES 3: ¥98.80 – High Dec 11
RES 2: ¥98.60 – 55-DMA
RES 1: ¥98.35 – Falling daily trend line, High Dec 29
LPRICE: ¥97.23
SUP 1: ¥97.00 – Hourly support Dec 19
SUP 2: ¥96.73 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: ¥96.44 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: ¥95.62 – Bollinger band base
O/S daily studies remain key concerns for bears following the pullback from Dec monthly highs as bears retain overall focus on the layers of support in the A$1.4428-1.4553 region where 100 & 200-DMAs are located. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above A$1.4922 to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.5018 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus back to the A$1.5333 Dec
monthly high.
RES 4: A$1.5018 – High Dec 29
RES 3: A$1.4984 – 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4922 – Low Dec 29 now resistance
RES 1: A$1.4860 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: A$1.4833
SUP 1: A$1.4741 – Low Dec 5
SUP 2: A$1.4733 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4656 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.4237-1.5333
SUP 4: A$1.4545 – Falling daily channel base