The Dollar sits just under its recent highs to start today as it was hit with Russian exporter selling in thin holiday conditions. With the UK market closed for holiday and other markets idled the move by the Russians in the currency markets had an outsized impact. However, we expect the Dollar to continue to see safe haven support as expectations for a Russian debt downgrade to junk status are swirling from the rumor mills. In looking back, US scheduled data this week has been strong enough to underpin the Dollar at current levels, especially with the Japanese economy posting slower than expected data overnight. While the US economic report slate is thin today, the residual carryover from US data already released this week should provide the March Dollar index with solid support at 90.08 which is also a quasi-double-bottom low.
Technical Outlook: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside target is 90.44. The next area of resistance is around 90.34 and 90.44, while 1st support hits today at 90.11 and below there at 89.98