Following recent 2014 and 4 ½ year lows the AUD/USD continues to trade sideways with O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base key concerns for bears. In saying that, bears remain focused on the $0.7971-0.8068 region where 2010 lows and the falling daily channel bases are located. Bulls need a close above $0.8235 to confirm a break of the channel top and ease bearish pressure and above $0.8299 to shift focus to the $0.8376-0.8469 region.
RES 4: $0.8299 – High Dec 12
RES 3: $0.8235 – High Dec 17
RES 2: $0.8203 – High Dec 18, Short term falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8175 – High Dec 22
LPRICE: $0.8128
SUP 1: $0.8084 – Monthly Low June 8 2010
SUP 2: $0.8068 – 2010 Low May 25 2010
SUP 3: $0.7999 – Short term falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.7971 – Longer term falling daily channel base
Bears remain focused on the $0.7609 2014 low following repeated recent failures ahead of the $0.7807 initial resistance with the Bollinger band base seen as the key concern. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $0.7807 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7869 to confirm breaks of key DMAs, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus so the $0.7910-0.8039 region with the 100-DMA at
$0.8011.
RES 4: $0.7900 – Falling daily trend line Sept-Dec
RES 3: $0.7869 – High Dec 11
RES 2: $0.7848 – High Dec 16
RES 1: $0.7807 – Hourly resistance Dec 16
LPRICE: $0.7730
SUP 1: $0.7679 – Low Dec 18
SUP 2: $0.7660 – Low Dec 10, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
SUP 4: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
Hesitation ahead of last week’s 2014 low continues with the bounce to start the new week having lacked follow through. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base remain concerns for bears but a close above NZ$1.0600 remains needed to ease bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0649 to shift focus to the key NZ$1.0758-1.0938 region. While NZ$1.0600 caps bears remain focused on the Fibonacci projections.
RES 4: NZ$1.0698 – High Dec 11
RES 3: NZ$1.0649 – High Dec 15
RES 2: NZ$1.0600 – High Dec 16
RES 1: NZ$1.0561 – High Dec 22
LPRICE: NZ$1.0517
SUP 1: NZ$1.0473 – 2014 Low Dec 18
SUP 2: NZ$1.0427 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0413 – 1.618 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
SUP 4: NZ$1.0332 – 1.764 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
Following recent dips below the Bollinger band base (¥95.52) the bounce has so far failed ahead of initial resistance in the ¥97.99-02 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls need a close above ¥98.02 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus back to the ¥99.49-87 region. Initial support is noted ¥96.73-00 with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish focus and target Oct monthly lows. O/S daily studies are the key concern for bears.
RES 4: ¥99.49 – High Dec 10
RES 3: ¥98.80 – High Dec 11
RES 2: ¥98.02 – High Dec 15
RES 1: ¥97.99 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: ¥97.55
SUP 1: ¥97.00 – Hourly support Dec 19
SUP 2: ¥96.73 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 3: ¥96.22 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: ¥95.23 – Low Dec 16
The lack of follow through and relatively bearish closes following 9 month highs Wednesday resulted in a pullback that broke the Nov/Dec rising daily channel base. Bears took comfort in this move when combined with correcting O/B daily studies. A$1.5103 remains initial resistance with a close above needed to provide bulls with breathing space. While this level caps immediate focus has shifted to the A$1.4834-1.4968 region
RES 4: A$1.5371 – High Mar 18
RES 3: A$1.5333 – High Dec 17
RES 2: A$1.5208 – High Dec 18
RES 1: A$1.5103 – Low Dec 16 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.5025
SUP 1: A$1.4968 – Low Dec 12
SUP 2: A$1.4914 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.4237-1.5333
SUP 3: A$1.4909 – Low Dec 11
SUP 4: A$1.4838 – Low Dec 9
The break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1179.5 Monday came following another failed attempt to make headway above the 21 & 55-DMAs with the falling daily channel base supporting so far. The break lower confirms the bearish bias and sees bears targeting the $1130.0-1146.7 region although the Bollinger band base may limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above $1192.6 to ease bearish pressure and above $1203.4 to target $1224.3-1240.6.
RES 4: $1213.8 – High Dec 18
RES 3: $1203.4 – High Dec 22
RES 2: $1192.6 – Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance
RES 1: $1183.6 – Low Dec 17 now resistance
LPRICE: $1175.4
SUP 1: $1172.1 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 2: $1165.4 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1146.7 – Low Dec 1
SUP 4: $1130.0 – 2014 Low Nov 7