Following recent 2014 and 4 ½ year lows the AUD/USD traded sideways to end last week with O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base key concerns for bears. In saying that, bears remain focused on the $0.7983-68 region where 2010 lows and the falling daily channel bases are located. Bulls look for a close above $0.8235 to confirm a break of the channel top and ease bearish pressure and above $0.8299 to shift focus to the $0.8376-0.8469 region.
RES 4: $0.8299 – High Dec 12
RES 3: $0.8235 – High Dec 17
RES 2: $0.8225 – Short term falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8203 – High Dec 18
LPRICE: $0.8144
SUP 1: $0.8084 – Monthly Low June 8 2010
SUP 2: $0.8068 – 2010 Low May 25 2010
SUP 3: $0.8024 – Short term falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.7983 – Longer term falling daily channel base
Bears remain focused on the $0.7609 2014 low following repeated recent failures ahead of the $0.7807 initial resistance. although the Bollinger band base is expected to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $0.7807 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7869 to confirm breaks of key DMAs, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus so the $0.7910-0.8039 region with
the 100-DMA at $0.8019.
RES 4: $0.7907 – Falling daily trend line Sept-Dec
RES 3: $0.7869 – High Dec 11
RES 2: $0.7848 – High Dec 16
RES 1: $0.7807 – Hourly resistance Dec 16
LPRICE: $0.7760
SUP 1: $0.7679 – Low Dec 18
SUP 2: $0.7660 – Low Dec 10, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.7609 – 2014 Low Dec 9
SUP 4: $0.7461 – 2012 Low May 23 2012
The dip to fresh 2014 lows Thursday lacked follow through and bounced from below the Bollinger band base but the recovery has also lacked follow through. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base are key concerns for bulls but a close above NZ$1.0600 remains needed to ease bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0649 to shift focus to the key NZ$1.0758-1.0938 region. While NZ$1.0600 caps bears remain
focused on the Fibonacci projections
RES 4: NZ$1.0698 – High Dec 11
RES 3: NZ$1.0649 – High Dec 15
RES 2: NZ$1.0600 – High Dec 16
RES 1: NZ$1.0520 – Hourly resistance Dec 19
LPRICE: NZ$1.0501
SUP 1: NZ$1.0473 – 2014 Low Dec 18
SUP 2: NZ$1.0444 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0413 – 1.618 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
SUP 4: NZ$1.0332 – 1.764 Fibonacci projection 1.1311-1.0756
Following recent dips below the Bollinger band base (¥95.54) the bounce Wednesday was followed up with higher daily highs and lows to end the week but the failure ahead of initial resistance and relatively bearish close provides bears with some comfort. A close above ¥98.02 remains needed to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus back to the ¥99.49-87 region. Initial support is noted at ¥96.73 with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish focus and target Oct monthly low
RES 4: ¥99.49 – High Dec 10
RES 3: ¥98.80 – High Dec 11
RES 2: ¥98.02 – High Dec 15
RES 1: ¥97.95 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: ¥97.47
SUP 1: ¥96.73 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: ¥96.22 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: ¥95.23 – Low Dec 16
SUP 4: ¥95.17 – 55-WMA
The lack of follow through and relatively bearish closes following 9 month highs Wednesday resulted in a pullback that breaks the Nov/Dec rising daily channel base. Bears take comfort in this move when combined with correcting O/B daily studies. A$1.5103 remains initial resistance with a close above needed to provide bulls with breathing space. While this level caps immediate focus has shifted to the A$1.4834-
1.4968 region
RES 4: A$1.5371 – High Mar 18
RES 3: A$1.5333 – High Dec 17
RES 2: A$1.5208 – High Dec 18
RES 1: A$1.5103 – Low Dec 16 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.5040
SUP 1: A$1.4968 – Low Dec 12
SUP 2: A$1.4914 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1.4237-1.5333
SUP 3: A$1.4909 – Low Dec 11
SUP 4: A$1.4838 – Low Dec 9