A fresh downside breakout overnight rekindles expectations of a resumption of the downtrend pattern. Residual risk-on sentiment, higher equities, relative calm toward Russia and ideas that the BOJ stimulus efforts, combined with lower oil will increase the odds of a Japanese economic recovery. Sell rallies to 85.00 or buy long dated Yen puts for a position play.
Technical Outlook: A positive indicator was given with the upside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is 83.51. The next area of resistance is around 84.61 and
85.00, while 1st support hits today at 83.87 and below there at 83.51.