The final rate decision this year in Norway takes place on Dec 11th, with Norges Bank expected to leave rates unchanged at 1.50% according to 15 out of 16 surveyed economists on Bloomberg, while 1 economist is expecting a 25bp cut to 1.25%. This is in some contrast to the rates market, where front-end rates arguably are pricing in a higher probability of a cut, at around 30-40%. While lower crude and a forward-looking Regional Network survey that implies a bearish outlook for the Norwegian economy with a sharp moderation in price pressures at the consumer level to follow, suggest that a further rate cut cannot be ruled out, we still find the timing unlikely.
Read the full report: FX Daily