During a war the ECB would wait on the boat until the rest of the world’s central bankers stormed the beaches. For the ECB to recognize the threat of deflation and to punt the decision to act until the 1st quarter of 2015 justifies an exodus from the Euro. The ECB probably wants to see the Euro fall to and below the 2010 lows on the weekly charts below 1.20 where 15 or 20 hour work weeks might be countervailed by a sharp rise in exports from countries with some economic pace. Next downside targeting in the Euro is 1.2277 and then not until
1.2153. If US payrolls are above +240,000 that could extend the Euro down by the width of the large range in the prior session.
Technical Outlook: The market was pushed to a new contract low. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is 121.9525. The next area of resistance is around 124.7550 and 125.5725, while 1st support hits today at 122.9450 and below there at 121.9525.