To start the second trading session of the week the Euro was presented with a 0.4% decline in October PPI results and it was also presented with news that German November new car registrations declined by 2%. With the Euro also facing renewed long interest in the Dollar and potentially supportive US data today and later this week we have to think that a return to and below the November lows is possible for the Euro directly ahead. Down trend channel resistance is seen up at 1.2498 and that resistance line falls down to 1.2458 by this coming Friday. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of November 25th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 160,314 contracts, a decrease of 6,814 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 223,047 contracts, a decrease of 3,678 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 62,733 contracts, an increase of 3,136 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 223,047 contracts. This represents a decrease of 3,678 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside target is at 125.5750. The next area of resistance is around 125.1800 and 125.5750, while 1st support hits today at
124.3000 and below there at 123.8150.