The bounce from ahead of 2014 lows Thursday combined with the continuation higher Friday is hinting at shift higher in focus. Bulls now look for a close above $0.8746 to confirm a shift to a bullish bias that then sees bulls target the $0.8913 Oct monthly high. The $0.8604-52 support region now becomes key with bears needing a close below to see bears regain the upper hand and target a break to fresh 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8853 – High Oct 31
RES 3: $0.8796 – High Nov 17
RES 2: $0.8746 – High Nov 18
RES 1: $0.8723 – High Nov 21
LPRICE: $0.8681
SUP 1: $0.8652 – Hourly support Nov 21
SUP 2: $0.8604 – Low Nov 21
SUP 3: $0.8566 – Low Nov 20
SUP 4: $0.8540 – 2014 Low Nov 7
NZD/USD continues to find support on dips around the 21-DMA ($0.7834) with bulls retaining the upper hand until a close below $0.7791 is seen. Immediate focus remains on the $0.7980 level with a close above shifting focus to the $0.8042-96 region where Oct monthly highs are located. Bears need a close below $0.7791 to confirm a bearish bias and a shift in focus back to 204 lows.
RES 4: $0.8096 – High Sept 24
RES 3: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 2: $0.7980 – High Oct 29
RES 1: $0.7948 – Hourly resistance Nov 18
LPRICE: $0.7878
SUP 1: $0.7846 – Low Nov 21
SUP 2: $0.7791 – Low Nov 12
SUP 3: $0.7712 – Low Nov 11
SUP 4: $0.7660 – 2014 Low Nov 7
The bounce from ahead of NZ$1.0915-28 is hinting at a shift in focus. The pair has not closed below the 200-DMA since last July with a close below seen as a significant bearish event that will shift overall focus back to the 2014 low. Bulls need t a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with above NZ$1.1092 needed to hint at further topside and above NZ$1.1175 to confirm.
RES 4: NZ$1.1091 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.1043 – 100-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.1023 – High Nov 19
RES 1: NZ$1.0993 – Hourly resistance Nov 19
LPRICE: NZ$1.1003
SUP 1: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
SUP 2: NZ$1.0915 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2 now support
SUP 4: NZ$1.0774 – Low July 21
The lack of follow through following fresh 2014 highs Friday is a concern for bulls when combined with O/B daily studies. Bears continue to look for a close below Y101.23 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure with below Y100.06 then needed to hint at deeper correction targeting the Y98.05-99.33 region where the 21-DMA is located. While Y101.23 supports bulls target fresh 2014 highs and Y105.43 2013 high overall.
RES 4: Y103.95 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y103.70 – Rising daily channel top
RES 2: Y102.87 – 2014 High Nov 21
RES 1: Y102.33 – Hourly resistance Nov 21
LPRICE: Y101.99
SUP 1: Y101.23 – Low Nov 17
SUP 2: Y100.71 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: Y100.06 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: Y99.71 – Previous 2014 high now support
The failed spike above the 200-DMA Thursday was followed up by a sharp sell-off to end the week that erased the week’s gains for the pair and sees a bearish bias re-emerge. Immediate focus shifts to the key A$1.4184-1.4217 region with bears favouring a break below that targets the 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to ease the bearish pressure and above A$1.4441 to confirm a bullish bias and shift focus back to the 200-DMA (A$1.4608).
RES 4: A$1.4654 – High Oct 17
RES 3: A$1.4487 – Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 2: A$1.4441 – Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 1: A$1.4396 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4289
SUP 1: A$1.4217 – Low Oct 31
SUP 2: A$1.4203 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4184 – Low Sept 12
SUP 4: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11