The sell-off Wednesday has seen layers of resistance develop in the $0.8657-0.8796 region with bulls needing a close above $0.8682 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8796 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the $0.8911 Oct monthly high. The sharp move lower sees bears firmly focused on the layers of support in the $0.8540-87 region with overall focus having returned to retests of the $0.8317 July 2014 monthly low.
RES 4: $0.8796 – High Nov 17
RES 3: $0.8746 – High Nov 18
RES 2: $0.8682 – Low Nov 18 now resistance
RES 1: $0.8657 – Hourly resistance Nov 19
LPRICE: $0.8608
SUP 1: $0.8587 – Low Nov 10
SUP 2: $0.8567 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8540 – 2014 Low Nov 7
SUP 4: $0.8317 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
The $0.7980 resistance level confirmed its significance Tuesday with another spike above the 55-DMA ($0.7943) lacking follow through and remaining capped ahead of $0.7980. The reversal from this level is a concern for bears with immediate focus having shifted back to the $0.7791-34 region. The $0.7791 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 3: $0.7980 – High Oct 29
RES 2: $0.7948 – Hourly resistance Nov 18
RES 1: $0.7899 – Low Nov 18 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.7850
SUP 1: $0.7834 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.7822 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: $0.7791 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: $0.7712 – Low Nov 11
Pressure remains on NZ$1.0913-19 support where the 200-DMA is located although at present the Bollinger band base appears to be limiting follow through. Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the bearish case targeting the 2014 low. The pair has not closed below the 200-DMA since last July with a close below seen as a significant bearish event. Bulls need to see a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.1091 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.1037 – 100-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.1023 – High Nov 19
RES 1: NZ$1.0993 – Hourly resistance Nov 19
LPRICE: NZ$1.0960
SUP 1: NZ$1.0955 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
SUP 3: NZ$1.0913 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2 now support
Cracks are appearing in the up trend with the pair failing to retest the recent 2014 and 18 month highs when combined with the shift in pressure to initial support in the Y100.71-101.23 region. Bears need a close below Y100.71 to ease bearish pressure and below Y100.06 to hint at a deeper correction that targets the key Y98.05-64 support region with the 21-DMA noted at Y98.52. While Y100.71 supports bulls initially target Y102.78-103.43.
RES 4: Y103.58 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y103.09 – Rising daily channel top
RES 2: Y102.40 – 2014 High Nov 17
RES 1: Y101.80 – Hourly resistance Nov 19
LPRICE: Y101.55
SUP 1: Y101.23 – Low Nov 17
SUP 2: Y100.71 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: Y100.06 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: Y99.71 – Previous 2014 high now support
The down trend came to a dramatic end Wednesday with the sharp move higher and relatively bullish close seeing immediate pressure return to the A$1.4604-1.4707 region with the 200-DMA at A$1.4615. Layers of support have developed with bears now needing a close below A$1.4487 to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.4441 to shift focus back to the A$1.4184-1.4217 region. The key concern for bulls comes from the Bollinger band top at A$1.4535.
RES 4: A$1.4778 – High May 26
RES 3: A$1.4707 – Monthly High Oct 16
RES 2: A$1.4616 – 200-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4604 – High Oct 21
LPRICE: A$1.4560
SUP 1: A$1.4487 – High Nov 7 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4441 – High Nov 11 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4360 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4339 – Hourly support Nov 18
