Bulls remain concerned at the lower daily high and low Tuesday following on from Monday’s close back below the 21-DMA ($0.8731) with bears needing a close below $0.8647 to confirm a shift back to a bearish bias. Layers of resistance remain in the $0.8796-0.8911 region with bulls needing a close above $0.8796 to confirm a bullish bias and above $0.8911 to shift focus to the $0.9114-0.9154 region where the 200-DMA is located.
RES 4: $0.8911 – Monthly High Oct 29
RES 3: $0.8871 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9505-0.8540
RES 2: $0.8853 – High Oct 31
RES 1: $0.8796 – High Nov 17
LPRICE: $0.8697
SUP 1: $0.8647 – Low Nov 14
SUP 2: $0.8587 – Low Nov 10
SUP 3: $0.8579 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8540 – 2014 Low Nov 7
The $0.7980 resistance level confirmed its significance Tuesday with another spike above the 55-DMA ($0.7952) lacking follow through and remaining capped ahead of $0.7980. Bulls need a close above $0.7980 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and add support to the bullish case for a move higher that targets the $0.8223-32 region. The $0.7791 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 3: $0.7998 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.7980 – High Oct 29
RES 1: $0.7948 – Hourly resistance Nov 18
LPRICE: $0.7931
SUP 1: $0.7898 – Low Nov 17
SUP 2: $0.7822 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: $0.7791 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: $0.7712 – Low Nov 11
The lack of follow through and bounce from below the Bollinger band base and ahead of the key NZ$1.0912-19 support region where the 200-DMA is located is hinting at cracks in the down trend. In saying that, bulls now need to see a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above NZ$1.1092 needed to hint at further topside and above NZ$1.1162 confirm a shift in focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.1091 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.1043 – High Nov 17
RES 2: NZ$1.1035 – 100-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1014 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.1000
SUP 1: NZ$1.0970 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
SUP 3: NZ$1.0912 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2 now support
Fresh 2014 and 18 month highs continued for the AUD/JPY Monday with overall bullish focus remaining on the Y105.42 2013 high. Initial support is now noted in the Y100.71-101.23 region with bears needing a close below Y100.71 to ease bearish pressure and below Y100.06 to hint at a deeper correction that targets the key Y98.05-16 support region with the 21-DMA noted at Y98.16. While Y100.71 supports immediate focus remains on Y102.78-103.43.
RES 4: Y105.43 – 2013 High Apr 2013
RES 3: Y103.43 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y102.78 – Rising daily channel top
RES 1: Y102.40 – 2014 High Nov 17
LPRICE: Y102.05
SUP 1: Y101.23 – Low Nov 17
SUP 2: Y100.71 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: Y100.06 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: Y99.71 – Previous 2014 high now support
The spike above the 21, 55 & 100-DMAs Tuesday is a concern for bears following the bounce from ahead of the key A$1.4184-1.4234 support region last week. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at A$1.4339 with bears needing a close below this level to reconfirm bearish pressure and focus on A$1.4184-1.4234. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.4440 to confirm a shift to a bullish bias with focus then shifting to the A$1.4604-1.4707 region.
RES 4: A$1.4618 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4604 – High Oct 21
RES 2: A$1.4487 – High Nov 7
RES 1: A$1.4440 – High Nov 11
LPRICE: A$1.4361
SUP 1: A$1.4339 – Hourly support Nov 18
SUP 2: A$1.4234 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4217 – Low Oct 31
SUP 4: A$1.4184 – Low Sept 12
