Bulls have so far been unable to capitalize on the close above the 21-DMA ($0.8733) Friday with the pair correcting lower to start the new week and bears regaining the upper hand. Immediate focus has returned to the $0.8647 low from Friday with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to the $0.8540-87 region where the lower Bollinger band is located. Bulls now need a close above $0.8796 to see a bullish bias return.
RES 4: $0.8871 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9505-0.8540
RES 3: $0.8853 – High Oct 31
RES 2: $0.8796 – High Nov 17
RES 1: $0.8738 – Hourly resistance Nov 17
LPRICE: $0.8720
SUP 1: $0.8647 – Low Nov 14
SUP 2: $0.8587 – Low Nov 10
SUP 3: $0.8581 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8540 – 2014 Low Nov 7
Bulls took comfort in the bounce from below the 21-DMA Friday but despite a spike above the 55-DMA Monday the pair retreated for what looks to be a relatively bearish close. Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support to the case for a rally that targets the 100 & 200-DMAs $0.8232-0.8394. A close above the 55-DMA was last seen back in late July. Bears need to see a close below $0.7791 to reconfirm bearish focus and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 3: $0.8005 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.7980 – High Oct 29
RES 1: $0.7940 – Hourly resistance Nov 17
LPRICE: $0.7917
SUP 1: $0.7885 – Hourly support Nov 14
SUP 2: $0.7822 – Low Nov 14
SUP 3: $0.7791 – Low Nov 12
SUP 4: $0.7712 – Low Nov 11
After remaining heavy the AUD/NZD managed a close below the 100-DMA, the first close below the 100-DMA since mid July. Immediate focus now shifts to the NZ$1.0912-19 region where the 200-DMA is located. The NZ$1.0978 level is currently supporting with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.1091 to ease bearish pressure and above NZ$1.1161 needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.1161 – High Nov 11
RES 3: NZ$1.1091 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.1043 – High Nov 17
RES 1: NZ$1.1034 – 100-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.1005
SUP 1: NZ$1.0978 – Low Oct 22
SUP 2: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
SUP 3: NZ$1.0912 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2 now support
Fresh 2014 and 18 month highs continued for the pair Monday with overall focus remaining on the Y105.42 2013 high. The lack of topside follow through and what looks likely to be a relatively bearish close are seen as issues for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below Y100.71 to ease bearish pressure and below Y100.06 to hint at a deeper correction that targets the key Y98.05 support with the 21-DMA (Y97.77) just below
RES 4: Y103.01 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y102.48 – Rising daily channel top
RES 2: Y102.40 – 2014 High Nov 17
RES 1: Y101.99 – Hourly support Nov 17 now resistance
LPRICE: Y101.47
SUP 1: Y100.71 – Low Nov 14
SUP 2: Y100.06 – Low Nov 12
SUP 3: Y99.71 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: Y99.28 – High Nov 7 now support
Bears remain concerned at the bounce from ahead of the A$1.4217 level with bounces from this level previously having resulted in rallies back to A$1.4604-1.4707. In saying that, bounces have so far stalled ahead of the DMAs in the A$1.4358-82 region. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the DMAs and an easing of bearish pressure that hints at a shift in focus to $1.4604-1.4707.
RES 4: A$1.4621 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4604 – High Oct 21
RES 2: A$1.4487 – High Nov 7
RES 1: A$1.4382 – High Nov 12, 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4294
SUP 1: A$1.4221 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4217 – Low Oct 31
SUP 3: A$1.4184 – Low Sept 12
SUP 4: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
