USD/JPY: 125 in 2015, 130 in 2016

The role of our USD/JPY forecast of 120 at end-2015 has ended. Even three months ago, our forecasts for 112 at end-2014 and 120 at end-2015 tended to be viewed as overly bullish. In a sense, the forecast of 120 was set as the upper limit of what market participants could look realistic. However, we think 120 would be no longer the minority view. From the point of views of both fundamentals and self-fulfillment of the forecast, over-120 now looks quite a realistic forecast.

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