After seeing the non-reportable positioning in the Euro hit a fresh all-time record short reading it wasn’t surprising to see some recovery action in the Euro following less than stellar US non-farm payroll results.However, the economic pendulum is about to swing back against the Euro in the wake of upcoming data that islargely expected to be disappointing. We also have to think that reports of unmarked armored troop carriers in theUkraine border region and increased fighting over the weekend increases anxiety toward sustained Russiansanctions and that could leave the fear of even greater sanctions in the background. Aggressive traders shouldlook to get short the December Euro above 1.25 which we think will be good positioning for a resumption of thedown trend in the Euro. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of November 4th for Euroshowed Non-Commercial traders were net short 169,718 contracts, an increase of 6,299 contracts. TheCommercial traders were net long 231,086 contracts, an increase of 17,498 contracts. The Non-reportable traderswere net short 61,369 contracts, an increase of 11,200 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combinedtraders held a net short position of 231,087 contracts. This represents an increase of 17,499 contracts in the netshort position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: The market broke to a new contract low. Momentum studies are still bearish but arenow at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 9-day movingaverage is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator thatcould support higher prices. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The nextdownside target is now at 123.2775. The next area of resistance is around 125.2050 and 125.5375, while 1stsupport hits today at 124.0750 and below there at 123.2775.