The Dollar was able to extend its recent upsurge to a new multi-year high overnight, but fell backtowards unchanged levels and has generally kept within a tight trading range in front of today’s “main event”, theNon-Farm Payrolls reading later this morning. The Dollar’s competitive advantage has been bolstered by decentUS economic data, primarily from the labor front, so a positive spin from today’s numbers may be required inorder to hold its ground much less take this current uptrend further up to new highs. The market has only seen 1Non-Farm Payroll number come in below the +200,000 level since January, so the Dollar may have a pretty highbar to clear even if today’s numbers provide the market with few surprises. Given its recent strength, it may take aNon-Farm Payrolls reading in excess of +250,000 along with upward revisions to the August and Septemberreadings and a downtick in the Unemployment Rate in order to see a sharp rally from these already lofty pricelevels. There will be little room for any disappointment, however, as traders will be looking to book their long-sideDollar profits after the rally of the last two weeks.
Technical Outlook: A new contract high was made on the rally. Studies are showing positivemomentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day movingaverage is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number isa bullish indication. The near-term upside target is at 88.97. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approachingoverbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 88.72 and 88.97, while 1st support hits today at 87.73and below there at 86.98.