With Ukrainian officials loudly complaining about ongoing Russian involvement in their country, German officials confirming that the sanctions need to remain in place and the EU reducing forward growth projections, thepath of least resistance in the Euro remains down. However, the December Euro was extensively oversold andthe sharp decline in oil prices (into the key winter demand period) could be seen as an eventual supplement toEuro zone QE and that might serve to cushion the Euro against lower lows on the charts. To start today, criticalsupport is seen at 1.2489 but to begin to turn the trend around, probably requires a rise and close back above1.2650.
Technical Outlook: The market broke to a new contract low. Momentum studies are declining, but havefallen to oversold levels. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar movingaverage. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downsideobjective is now at 124.1075. The next area of resistance is around 125.2550 and 125.5675, while 1st supporthits today at 124.5250 and below there at 124.1075.