With the US Fed getting policy back to normal, confidence in the Japanese economy slowly settling intoplace and the benefit of lower oil prices fairly significant into the Northern hemisphere winter, we think the trend inthe Yen is poised to remain down. Near term downside targeting in the December Yen is seen down at 91.07.Higher Japanese coal imports in September might also point to an improvement in the Japanese economy andthat should be a sign of a positive track in energy demand and with sharply lower energy import costs andfavorable Japanese currency manufacturing export conditions, the Japanese economy should continue toimprove.
Technical Outlook: The moving average crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possibledeveloping short-term downtrend. Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tendto support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some earlyweakness. The next downside objective is now at 91.17. The next area of resistance is around 92.31 and 92.94,while 1st support hits today at 91.43 and below there at 91.17.