The Dollar spiked up overnight off what might be seen as a relief rally in the wake of a lack of fresh US Ebola infections over the weekend. The Dollar is also catching a bid from international acknowledgement of astring of better than expected US scheduled data at the end of last week and from statements from the Fed’sRosengren that recent volatility is not enough to alter the Fed’s decision to end asset purchases at the end of thismonth and to begin raising rates in 2015. With the US economic report slate thin today, the focus of the trade islikely to center on a couple Fed speeches later in the trading session. Unfortunately for the bull camp, the Dollarsaw open interest fall off sharply in the last attempt to rally above 86.00 and that might suggest the bull camplacks the capacity to rekindle the entrenched rally mode that unfolded from late June to early October. For the bullcamp to regain control of the Dollar, probably requires a sweep of positive scheduled data starting Tuesdaymorning. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of October 14th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 48,641 contracts, a decrease of 815 contracts. The Commercial traders werenet short 58,258 contracts, a decrease of 1,069 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 9,617contracts, a decrease of 255 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net longposition of 58,258 contracts. This represents a decrease of 1,070 contracts in the net long position held by thesetraders.
Technical Outlook: Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower priceaction. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a mildly bullishindicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is 84.71. The next area ofresistance is around 85.55 and 85.70, while 1st support hits today at 85.05 and below there at 84.71.