AUD/USD continued to bounce from ahead of the 2014 low last week. Bulls now look for a close above $0.8861 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($0.8784) and hint at a bigger bounce with a close above $0.8898 then needed to confirm and see focus shift back to the $0.9076-0.9114 region. Bears retain the upper hand while the $0.8861-98 region caps and need fresh 2014 lows to reconfirm bearish pressure and target the $0.8317 July 2010 monthly low.
RES 4: $0.8949 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.8934 – 38.2% Fibonacci $0.9405-0.9643
RES 2: $0.8898 – High Oct 9
RES 1: $0.8861 – High Oct 15
LPRICE: $0.8760
SUP 1: $0.8675 – Low Oct 15
SUP 2: $0.8643 – 2014 Low Oct 3, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8317 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
SUP 4: $0.8068 – 2010 Low May 24 2010
The long term falling trend line that dates back to July capped the NZD/USD Thursday but bulls will take a little comfort in the failure to close below the 21-DMA ($0.7908) despite dipping below. Bears now look for a close below $0.7875 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the $0.7682-0.7713 region. Bulls now need to see a close above $0.8042 to confirm a break of the falling trend line and target $0.8183-0.8232.
RES 4: $0.8140 – 38.2% Fibonacci $0.8840-0.7708
RES 3: $0.8096 – High Sept 24
RES 2: $0.8042 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 1: $0.7991 – Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: $0.7920
SUP 1: $0.7875 – Low Oct 17
SUP 2: $0.7795 – Low Oct 13
SUP 3: $0.7783 – Low Oct 8
SUP 4: $0.7708 – Monthly Low Sept 29
The pullback from recent failures ahead of the 2014 high gathered momentum Wednesday with the pair then finding support ahead of the 100-DMA. Initial resistance is noted at the 55-DMA but bulls need a close above NZ$1.1149 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the 2014 highs. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the bearish case and below NZ$1.0919 to hint at a move back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.1240 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.1194 – Hourly resistance Oct 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1149 – High Oct 15
RES 1: NZ$1.1093 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.1047
SUP 1: NZ$1.0977 – 100-DMA *SUP 2: NZ$1.0947 – 55-WMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0928 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0919 – Low Sept 22
After some volatile sessions last week the AUD/JPY ended the week on a bullish note recovering most of Thursday and Friday’s losses. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y94.64 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA (Y94.62) and ease bearish pressure. Above Y94.64 is also needed to shift focus back to key DMAs clustered Y95.84-96.09. While Y94.64 caps overall focus remains on the Y88.22 2014 low from early Feb.
RES 4: Y96.05 – 55-DMA
RES 3: Y95.84 – 100-DMA
RES 2: Y94.64 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
RES 1: Y94.04 – High Oct 15
LPRICE: Y93.81
SUP 1: Y92.76 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: Y91.77 – Low Oct 16
SUP 3: Y91.15 – Low Mar 27
SUP 4: Y90.08 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The 21-DMA supported on dips last week with the result being a rally to fresh 4 month highs only to pullback from ahead of the 200-DMA on the first two attempts. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to add support to their case for a move that targets the $1.4874-1.5022 region. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to hint at a deeper correction and below the 55-DMA to confirm a shift in focus to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4874 – High May 21
RES 3: A$1.4756 – Monthly High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4726 – 200-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4707 – High Oct 16
LPRICE: A$1.4559
SUP 1: A$1.4475 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4323 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4239 – Low Sept 16
SUP 4: A$1.4222 – Alternating daily support/resistance
