Following on from last week’s brief excursion above the 21-DMA ($0.8846) the AUD/USD headed lower to end the week with bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close. Immediate pressure has returned to the 2014 low to start the new week with bears favouring a break lower that shifts focus to the $0.8317 July 2010 monthly low. Bulls now need a close above $0.8793 to ease the bearish pressure and above $0.8898 to end bearish hopes and target $0.9114
RES 4: $0.8934 – 38.2% Fibonacci $0.9405-0.9643
RES 3: $0.8898 – High Oct 9
RES 2: $0.8793 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
RES 1: $0.8732 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
LPRICE: $0.8687
SUP 1: $0.8643 – 2014 Low Oct 3
SUP 2: $0.8611 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8317 – Monthly Low July 1 2010
SUP 4: $0.8068 – 2010 Low May 24 2010
The close below the $0.7837 level Friday reconfirmed bearish pressure with immediate focus having shifted back to the 2013 & 2014 lows in the $0.7682-0.7713 region this week. Bears now look for a close above the $0.7878 level to ease bearish pressure a little whereas a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and shift focus to the $0.8232-36 region.
RES 4: $0.8041 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 3: $0.7964 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.7878 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
RES 1: $0.7845 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
LPRICE: $0.7815
SUP 1: $0.7783 – Low Oct 8
SUP 2: $0.7713 – 2014 Low Aug 30 2013
SUP 3: $0.7682 – 2013 Low June 24 2013
SUP 4: $0.7663 – Bollinger band base
The pullback from recent failures ahead of the 2014 high has eased bullish pressure a little with bears now needing a close below NZ$1.1097 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0927-68 region where the 100-DMA is located. While the pair holds above the Nz$1.1097-1.1108 support region bulls will continue to target fresh 2014 highs although O/B studies and the Bollinger band top may limit follow through
RES 4: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: NZ$1.1286 – High Sept 29
RES 2: NZ$1.1240 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.1194 – Hourly resistance Oct 9
LPRICE: NZ$1.1112
SUP 1: NZ$1.1108 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.1097 – Low Sept 29
SUP 3: NZ$1.1063 – Hourly support Sept 25
SUP 4: NZ$1.0968 – 100-DMA
Thursday saw the AUD/JPY dip below the 200-DMA (Y94.61) for the first time since March with bears taking significant comfort in the sharp move lower and close well below the 200-DMA to end the week. Immediate focus now shifts to the Y93.02 May monthly low with overall focus having shifted to the Y88.22 2014 low from early Feb. Key concerns for bears are seen coming from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: Y96.08 – Low Sept 24 now resistance
RES 3: Y95.89 – 100-DMA
RES 2: Y94.64 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
RES 1: Y94.23 – Hourly resistance Oct 10
LPRICE: Y93.30
SUP 1: Y93.02 – Monthly Low May 21
SUP 2: Y92.12 – Low Mar 20
SUP 3: Y91.15 – Low Mar 27
SUP 4: Y90.08 – Monthly Low Mar 3
After having largely traded sideways with the 55-DMA supporting, the break and close above the A$1.4501 level on Friday has reconfirmed bullish pressure. This sees immediate focus now shift to the A$1.4604 July monthly high with overall focus on the 200-DMA. Initial support is now noted at Friday’s low with a close below needed to ease the renewed bullish pressure whereas a close below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4756 – Monthly High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4743 – 200-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4568 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4530
SUP 1: A$1.4448 – Low Oct 10
SUP 2: A$1.4422 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4305 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4239 – Low Sept 16
