Bears continue to dominate with the AUD/USD trading at the lowest level since Feb 4 Friday and remaining heavy. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above $0.8953 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA is now needed to shift overall focus higher. Bears remain firmly focused on the 2014 low with the key concern seen coming from O/S daily studies, but while $0.8953 caps bears dominate.
RES 4: $0.8953 – High Sept 22
RES 3: $0.8927 – High Sept 23
RES 2: $0.8897 – High Sept 24
RES 1: $0.8831 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8757
SUP 1: $0.8755 – Low Sept 26
SUP 2: $0.8735 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 4: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The largest one day sell-off in 2014 occurred Thursday with immediate focus on the $0.7713 monthly low from Aug 30 2013 and overall focus to the $0.7682 2013 low. Initial resistance remains at $0.7968 with bulls needing a close above $0.8098 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above $0.8232 to shift overall focus higher. The key concerns for bears come from the close below the Bollinger band base and O/S daily studies.
RES 4: $0.8198 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 3: $0.8098 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $0.8041 – Low Sept 23 now resistance
RES 1: $0.7968 – Hourly resistance Sept 25
LPRICE: $0.7860
SUP 1: $0.7847 – Low Sept 26 2013
SUP 2: $0.7713 – Monthly Low Aug 30 2013
SUP 3: $0.7682 – 2013 Low June 24 2013
SUP 4: $0.7617 – Low June 8 2012
The rally from the 100-DMA continued last week with bulls taking comfort in the close above the 21-DMA Friday. The 21-DMA now becomes initial support with bears needing a close below to ease the renewed bullish pressure. Bulls also take comfort from correcting O/S daily studies with bulls now targeting the NZ$1.1227-97 region. Overall bears need a close below NZ$1.0927 to target 2014 lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: NZ$1.1289 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: NZ$1.1243 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 1: NZ$1.1227 – High Sept 11
LPRICE: NZ$1.1125
SUP 1: NZ$1.1107 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.1063 – Hourly support Sept 25
SUP 3: NZ$1.0980 – Low Sept 25
SUP 4: NZ$1.0931 – 100-DMA
After recently remaining capped ahead of the Y96.98 level Thursday’s sell-off saw the AUD/JPY close below both 55 & 100-DMAs with immediate focus having shifted to the 200-DMA at Y94.53. Bulls now need a close above Y96.08 to ease bearish pressure a little whereas a close above Y96.98 is needed to shift focus back to 2014 highs. Key concerns for bears are seen coming from O/S studies and the Bollinger band base (Y95.73).
RES 4: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: Y97.28 – 21-DMA
RES 2: Y96.98 – High Sept 23
RES 1: Y96.08 – Low Sept 24 now resistance
LPRICE: Y95.77
SUP 1: Y95.03 – Low Aug 15, Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 2: Y94.53 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y93.93 – Monthly low Aug 8
SUP 4: Y93.70 – Low May 29
Choppy trading continues for the EUR/AUD with a bounce from Wednesday’s lows resulting in fresh 2 month highs Friday. Bears need a close below A$1.4379 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure with bulls initially focused on the A$1.4604 July monthly high and then the 200-DMA (A$1.4790). Key concerns for bulls are seen coming from O/B daily studies but overall bears need a close below the 21-DMA to target 2014 lows once more.
RES 4: A$1.4756 – Monthly High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4651 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4563 – High Sept 26
LPRICE: A$1.4470
SUP 1: A$1.4379 – Low Sept 24
SUP 2: A$1.4294 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4223 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
