AUD/USD managed an inside day Wednesday with the pair bouncing a little from ahead of Tuesday’s low. Bulls need a close above $0.9003 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.9114 to shift overall focus higher. Daily studies remain at O/S levels and the Bollinger band base appears to be limiting follow through, but immediate focus remains on 2014 lows. Below this level then sees focus shift to July 2010 monthly lows at $0.8317.
RES 4: $0.9069 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 3: $0.9003 – High Sept 19
RES 2: $0.8953 – High Sept 22
RES 1: $0.8927 – High Sept 23
LPRICE: $0.8871
SUP 1: $0.8831 – Low Sept 23
SUP 2: $0.8780 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 4: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
Bearish pressure was reconfirmed Tuesday with the NZD/USD trading at fresh 2014 and 12 month lows. Immediate focus remains on the $0.7927-76 region where the falling daily channel base is noted with bulls continuing to look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.8411-37 region. The Bollinger band base and O/S daily studies remain the key concerns for bears.
RES 4: $0.8353 – High Sept 4
RES 3: $0.8230 – High Sept 16, 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8198 – Hourly resistance Sept 17, Channel top
RES 1: $0.8098 – Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8067
SUP 1: $0.8041 – 2014 Low Sept 23
SUP 2: $0.7976 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.7927 – High Sept 4 2013 now support
SUP 4: $0.7855 – Low Sept 5 2013
AUD/NZD has again bounced from ahead of the 100-DMA with bears continuing to look for a close below the 100-DMA to reconfirm bearish pressure. The bounce has seen the pair pop above the 55-DMA with bulls looking for a close above NZ$1.1026 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA needed to shift focus back to the 2014 high. Key concerns for bears come from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: NZ$1.1227 – High Sept 11
RES 3: NZ$1.1111 – 21-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
RES 1: NZ$1.1026 – Hourly resistance Sept 19
LPRICE: NZ$1.0994
SUP 1: NZ$1.0926 – 100-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.0841 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0826 – Low July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0767 – Low July 18
The recent sell-off has found support just below the 55-DMA but bulls continue to look for a close above Y96.98 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at further topside with a close above Y98.00 needed to confirm a shift in focus to 2014 highs. Bears need a close below Y96.08 to reconfirm bearish pressure but the Bollinger band base (Y96.22) is expected to limit follow through.
RES 4: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 3: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: Y98.40 – 21-DMA
RES 1: Y96.98 – High Sept 23
LPRICE: Y96.87
SUP 1: Y96.08 – Low Sept 24
SUP 2: Y95.83 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 4: Y95.03 – Low Aug 15
Gains above the 100-DMA have come to an end with a close back below the 100-DMA easing the previous bullish pressure. Immediate focus now shifts to the 55-DMA with a close below needed to hint at a deeper correction with below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in focus back to 2014 lows. Bulls now need a close above A$1.4604 to reconfirm bullish pressure and see focus shift higher to the 200-DMA although the Bollinger band top may limit follow through.
RES 4: A$1.4799 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4756 – Monthly High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4584 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4401
SUP 1: A$1.4296 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4187 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4012 – Low Sept 11
