Bears continue to retain overall focus on the 2014 low as the AUD/USD dipped to fresh 6 month lows Friday and ending the week with an offered tone. The key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base which may continue to limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9113 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA to target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 3: $0.9113 – Low Sept 10 now resistance
RES 2: $0.9069 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 1: $0.9016 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8937
SUP 1: $0.8915 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 4: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The failure ahead of the layers of resistance in the $0.8198-0.8284 region reconfirmed bearish pressure with bears initially targeting the $0.8013-51 region where the falling daily channel base and 2014 lows are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA ($0.8271) to confirm a break of the channel top, an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.8411-37 region.
RES 4: $0.8353 – High Sept 4
RES 3: $0.8259 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $0.8230 – High Sept 16, Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8198 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8151
SUP 1: $0.8077 – Low Sept 18
SUP 2: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 3: $0.8013 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.7927 – High Sept 4 2013 now support
After having found support at the NZ$1.1021 support this level gave way on Friday with the AUD/NZD then dipping below the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0918). The Bollinger band base comes in at NZ$1.0994) and may limit downside follow through below this level. In saying that, bears now dominate with focus having shifted to the NZ$1.0624 July monthly low. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.1026 to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA would target 2014 highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 3: NZ$1.1139 – 21-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
RES 1: NZ$1.1026 – Hourly resistance Sept 19
LPRICE: NZ$1.0958
SUP 1: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0918 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0839 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0826 – Low July 18
The bounce from the 50.0% Fibonacci support found support at the Y96.97 level with the AUD/JPY continuing to work its way back towards the 2014 high. Bears now need a close below Y96.97 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y95.75-96.32 region where Fibonacci supports and key DMAs are located. While the Y96.97 level supports immediate focus now shifts to the 2014 high.
RES 4: Y98.70 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: Y98.52 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 1: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: Y97.30
SUP 1: Y96.97 – Low Sept 17
SUP 2: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 3: Y96.21 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
The rally from 2014 lows continued for the EUR/AUD Friday with the 100-DMA capping on the first attempt. Bulls continue to look for a close above A$1.4478 to reconfirm bullish pressure and target the 200-DMA (A$1.4813). Worth noting the pair last closed above the 200-DMA in early May and above the 100-DMA in late March with a close above adding support to the bullish case. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure.
RES 4: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 2: A$1.4455 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: A$1.4438 – 100-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4380
SUP 1: A$1.4296 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4146 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
