Bears continue to retain overall focus on the 2014 low as the AUD/USD dipped to fresh 6 month lows Thursday before bouncing a little from below the Bollinger band base ($0.8958). The key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base which may continue to limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9113 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure above the 21-DMA to target 2014 highs
RES 4: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 3: $0.9113 – Low Sept 10 now resistance
RES 2: $0.9069 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
RES 1: $0.9016 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8982
SUP 1: $0.8924 – Low Sept 18
SUP 2: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
SUP 4: $0.8660 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The failure ahead of the layers of resistance that have developed in the $0.8198-0.8284 region reconfirmed bearish pressure with bears initially targeting the $0.8025-51 region where the falling daily channel base and 2014 lows are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA ($0.8284) to confirm a break of the channel top, an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.8411-37 region.
RES 4: $0.8259 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 2: $0.8230 – High Sept 16
RES 1: $0.8198 – Hourly resistance Sept 17
LPRICE: $0.8141
SUP 1: $0.8077 – Low Sept 18
SUP 2: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 3: $0.8025 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.7927 – High Sept 4 2013 now support
At present the NZ$1.1021 level is supporting with the NZ$1.1105 level capping and pressure having returned to initial support Thursday. Bears need to see a close below NZ$1.1021 to reconfirm bearish pressure with the Bollinger band base remaining the key concern and likely to limit downside follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and hint at a shift in overall focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1139 – 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1031
SUP 1: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0981 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0838 – 200-DMA
The bounce from the 50.0% Fibonacci support has now found support at the Y96.97 level with pair continuing to work its way back towards the 2014 high. Bears now need a close below Y96.97 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y95.75-96.32 region where Fibonacci supports and key DMAs are located. While the Y96.97 level supports immediate focus now shifts to the 2014 high.
RES 4: Y98.70 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: Y98.54 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 1: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: Y97.69
SUP 1: Y96.97 – Low Sept 17
SUP 2: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 3: Y96.18 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y95.75 – 61.8% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
The failure of bears to capitalize on the close back below the 55-DMA Tuesday sees focus return to the A$1.4420-78 region with bears now needing a close below A$1.4218 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bulls look for a close above A$1.4478 to reconfirm bullish pressure and target the 200-DMA (A$1.4818). Worth noting the pair last closed above the 200-DMA in early May and above the 100-DMA in late March
RES 4: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 3: A$1.4455 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: A$1.4444 – 100-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4420 – High Sept 15
LPRICE: A$1.4380
SUP 1: A$1.4218 – High Sept 11 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4142 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
