The Dollar is creeping back toward its recent highs in the wake of a series of calls for foreign central banks to ease! Therefore the trade seems to have backed off expectations that the US Fed will inch forward itsrate hike window. Ongoing weakness in US equities, reports of shelling in the Ukraine and weak Chinese factororders data over the weekend would seem to handcuff the Fed in the upcoming meeting. In fact, the OECDovernight has called on at least two central banks to provide more support and therefore seeing the Fed alter itsstance could be working at cross purposes to the world. All things considered, we can’t imagine the Fed is seeingany sign of inflationary pressure and we also don’t think that the US numbers have been strong enough for theFed to be in a position to adjust its rate structure to less extreme levels. However, in the event US data is at orabove expectations today, that could send the Dollar quickly into a fresh upside breakout. The Commitments ofTraders Futures and Options report as of September 9th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were netlong 32,521 contracts, an increase of 3,517 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 39,992 contracts,an increase of 2,983 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 7,471 contracts, a decrease of 534contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 39,992 contracts.This represents an increase of 2,983 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicatorand would tend to reinforce lower price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the9-bar moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The markettilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 83.92. The market isapproaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 84.41 and 84.58, while1st support hits today at 84.08 and below there at 83.92.